Managing Network Security

Understanding Viruses Bio-logically

by Fred Cohen



Series Introduction

Networks dominate today's computing landscape and commercial technical protection is lagging behind attack technology. As a result, protection program success depends more on prudent management decisions than on the selection of technical safeguards. Managing Network Security takes a management view of protection and seeks to reconcile the need for security with the limitations of technology.


Analogies

Managers are always looking for analogies to make things easier to understand - for themselves and for others. The analogy of biological viruses to computer viruses was one of the reasons they were called computer viruses in the first place, so it seems logical hat we should talk about them together in these terms.

The analogy of biology to computers is limited - at least at the low levels - in that the underlying mechanisms of cellular biology and computer functioning is quite different, but when we look at the macro view of how computers and information operate in the large, the strength of the analogy to the way the biological systems of Earth function can be quite striking.

Today, I am going to talk about things from the perspective of biology and reflect on how close the analogy is to the computing environment today. I should pause here to note that in 1988, Bill Murray wrote a paper for Computers and Security (V7 p 139) titled "The Applicaiton of Epidemiology to Computer Viruses" which covers similar material and that interested readers would be enriched by reviewing this article.


The Pathogenesis of Diseases

I am reading a very good book on emergent diseases ("Emerging Viruses" - edited by Stephen S. Morse, Oxford Press, 1993) and on page 72, Bernard Fields' article has a nice description of how viruses and hosts interact (table 7.1). I reproduce the table below for reference along with a new table (Emerging Computer Viruses" that I will explain shortly.:
Table 7.1 from "Emerging Viruses"
1 Stability in environment
2 Entry into host - portal of entry
3 Localization in cells near portal of entry
4 Primary replication
5 Non-specific immune response
6 Spread from primary site (blood, Nerves)
7 Cells and tissue tropism
8 Secondary replication
9 Antibody and cellular immune response
10 Release from host
"Pathogenesis of Computer Viruses"
1 Stability in environment
2 Entry into host - portal of entry
3 Localization in software near portal of entry
4 Primary replication
5 Non-specific immune response
6 Spread from primary site (disk, comms)
7 Program and data tropism
8 Secondary replication
9 Human and program immune response
10 Release from host

Darn these biologists are good!


Non-automated Attackers and the Biological Model

Just as computer viruses can be a close match to the biological situation, manual attacks by expert humans tend to follow the same methodology. In fact, this is really doing it backwards. the automated attacks are written after them manual techniques are well developed and tested.
Table 7.1 from "Emerging Viruses"
1 Stability in environment
2 Entry into host - portal of entry
3 Localization in cells near portal of entry
4 Primary replication
5 Non-specific immune response
6 Spread from primary site (blood, Nerves)
7 Cells and tissue tropism
8 Secondary replication
9 Antibody and cellular immune response
10 Release from host
"Pathogenesis of Computer Viruses"
1 Stability in environment
2 Entry into host - portal of entry
3 Localization in software near portal of entry
4 Primary replication
5 Non-specific immune response
6 Spread from primary site (disk, comms)
7 Program and data tropism
8 Secondary replication
9 Human and program immune response
10 Release from host
"Pathogenesis of Manual Attacks"
1 Stability in environment
2 Entry into host - portal of entry
3 Localization near portal of entry
4 Primary modifications
5 Non-specific immune response
6 Spread from primary site (privilege expansion)
7 Program and data tropism (hiding)
8 Secondary replication
9 Human and program immune response
10 Release from host (spread on)

It appears that, to a limited extent, even manual computer attack is similar to biological processes. But now let's look at how the analogy works in the large.


Large-Scale Attack Emergence

The host-by-host course of disease seems quite similar across the biological and informational domains. Perhaps this is just the nature of living organisms competing for survival. But in the larger scale, still more factors come into play. Let's take a look.

The emergence of communicable diseases in the biological world is generally regarded as an emergence because the life forms that produce disease in people are not being created from the ether. Rather, they are existing life forms competing for survival in a changing environment. When the environmental conditions change to the point where the ecological balance shifts diseases that were relatively dormant, at least as far as going unnoticed by human populations, become dominant and thus seem to 'emerge'. In the information world, the situation is a bit different today. Very few computer viruses from ten years ago emerge today - per se. This is not to say that they never will or can again emerge, only that this is not the situation we normally face. Rather, we see two phenomena. The same viruses - in concept - emerge again because of the reuse of old ideas by attackers and environmental conditions that are similar to what they were in the past; and new variations on old viruses are created through minor modifications of existing code.

The second kind of emergence - slight modifications of existing computer viruses - corresponds roughly to point mutations in the biological world. Most of the mutants have little impact. Some fail to operate at all, while others fail to gain a foothold in the current ecology. Even very rapid evolutions - within hours of the emergence of a major new strain - such as the Christma.Exe (1988), Melissa (1999) and ILOVEYOU (2000) viruses do poorly by comparison - presumably because the environment changes during the period of a successful disease so as to increase the hostility of the environment to the new virus strains.

The first kind of virus - recreations of old successful viruses updated for the new environment - such as Melissa (1999) and ILOVEYOU (2000) which are recreations of Christma.Exe (1988) - tend to be quite successful and often become pandemic.

We do not see highly sophisticated viruses such as those postulated in theoretical discussions of viruses. While in the laboratory, a serious scientist can easily create these strains, it appears that the people who release viruses into the general population have not yet reached that level of sophistication.

The whole attack evolution process seems to go something like this:

In each step of this process, the pathogenesis steps are also involved on a local basis, and for each strain, large-scale epidemiological effects are seen.


Epidemiology of Computer Attacks and Viruses

The epidemic process is normally only seen on a large scale for situations that go beyond isolates. Isolates can sometimes be held in confidence for many years and exploited only when needed so that they remain stealthy and exploitable by a small population of attackers. Unless they cause obvious harm on a large scale or are detected by a strong defender, they will continue to be effective in the small, but are unlikely to have large-scale effects unless they attack critical infrastructure elements upon while many other things are dependent. Isolates are similar to some of the murder technologies and spycraft technologies seen in historical cases involving governments.

Once attacks reach release, large-scale social effects take hold. Over periods ranging from minutes to months, the community responds. For people under immediate attack and who are able to detect the attack, a wide range of defensive strategies are employed on a case by case basis. The information on these defenses are shared and become part of the knowledge structure for overall public health in the computing arena. This information is generally tracked by professional systems administrators just as details of diseases and treatments are generally only tracked by doctors. Companies who make products that are susceptible to these attacks are also notified and, in some cases, respond rapidly with patches to reduce susceptibility. In the best case, these responses take hours, and the global delivery of these patches over the Internet is achieved in hours. Typically, these patches take from days to weeks to complete and are installed over a period of months to years. In some cases, such repairs are not undertaken by vendors and systems remain susceptible for a long period of time. For example, Microsoft has never provided adequate protection capabilities for its macros and visual basic systems, even though some minimal controls and improved defaults would largely eliminate many of their vulnerabilities.

Enhancement is typically taken to allow more people to more easily exploit a vulnerability. The ongoing enhancement and release of new and improved versions of attacks is only effective against susceptible systems, so that vendors who do effective repairs of the underlying problem escape this process to a large extent. For the sorts of issues we see today in mobile code (i.e., systems fundamentally based on trusting general purpose programs sent from system to system by untrusted third parties) typical repairs are ineffective against such enhancements because it is the fundamental nature of computation that sharing and general purpose function leads to the potential for viruses.

New viral strains take the automation a step further by providing the means to automatically reproduce the automated attack. That is, it transforms the previously manual aspects of the process into fully automated processes. When viruses enter the picture, epidemics are possible in the medical sense, and we see pandemic situations arise several times a year. For computer viruses, the analogy to biological systems is quite strong. Typically, new strains (e.g., Melissa and ILOVEYOU) are quite different from an epidemiological view than minor adaptions of these viruses, so we will treat these adaptions below and constrain the discussion to these viruses here. Depending on the portion of susceptible strains in the host population and their communications interactions, new strains spread from host to host in periods ranging from seconds to hours. Although slower strains may be devised, except for UDP viruses, no current strains can spread in less than a second, and those that spread in less than a second typically only spread between a very small number of hosts (one or two). For a sense of proportion, Melissa and ILOVEYOU typically spread only when the user reads email, so even though the virus may be within the host, it typically does not leap from host to host for minutes to hours. Systems administrators that run major installations typically detect the change in activity patterns within a few minutes to a few hours of the spread of a rapid virus in their environment and devise local solutions to limit epidemic effects. Some may devise a filtering mechanism. This has the effect of reducing or eliminating stability in environment. Some shut down servers or block services to give themselves time. This has the effect of preventing entry into the host by eliminating the portal of entry. The anti-virus vendors typically take from two to twelve hours to get enough of an understanding of a new strain to devise a temporary fix for it. This is then disseminated over a period of less than an hour to major sites. From a public health standpoint these are most important in reducing the overall condition by reducing the paths of transmissibility. Typically, such viruses will reach epidemic proportions within 8 hours of first release (based on an early weekday release), become pandemic within 24 hours, start to wane because of reduction in susceptible hosts and public health effects of antivirus products within 36 hours, and be reduced to a minor inconvenience within 48 hours. Small outbreaks may remain for up to a week later and an occasional copy will appear over the next month (typically as users who were on vacation return and invoke a local copy not previously destroyed). Long-term solutions to virus problems are not currently undertaken in a significant way.

Adaption of new viral strains typically happens within a few hours of the initial virus release. This is facilitated in cases where viruses are not stealthy and don't use concealment techniques to keep their functions hidden. Simple adaptions to the Melissa and ILOVEYOU strains were made the same day the virus started to spread. Before ILOVEYOU became pandemic (but after it became epidemic) several adaptions were spreading. Adaptions typically fare far less well than the strains they follow and reach only about one fifth of the saturation of host populations of the original virus for the first few adaptions and far smaller numbers for subsequent adaptions. Generally, the further the adaption is from the original strain, the more likely it is to have a larger effect, however, the high alert level of the susceptible population once a strain becomes pandemic results in significant changes in behavioral patterns, resulting in a far different environment for the adaptions than existed for the original strain. Generally, this environmental change makes the introduction of new adaptions into the environment at a high rate a far less successful strategy than one might initially think. The introduction of new strains at a rapid rate would likely cause far more dramatic changes in the environment, possibly even impacting the way hosts interact and the design of future hosts.


Management Effects of the Analogy

As we can see from the descriptive analysis above, the relationship of biological and informational viruses is useful in understanding the situations that arise today in dealing with virus outbreaks. One of the important things to notice here is that there are a lot of steps involved in the pathogenesis and emergence of computer viruses that are not being widely used for defensive purposes. A second item of interest is that from a public health perspective, defenders are not always considering their decisions as carefully as they might and they may be able to do a more cost effective job by better understanding this issue.

While I don't think I have solved all your management ills in this exposition, I do hope that I have provided you with some ideas about how to better use your resources, or at least some ideas about where to start trying to do better.


Conclusions

People ask me why a teenager can bring down a significant portion of the Internet, and I guess the answer is that the Internet is being built by a bunch of relatively unskilled and undertrained workers. And did I mention that this situation is getting worse? With the current job situation, several million new IT workers are needed in the next few years, but only a few hundred thousand will be educated. We need to change this in a serious way if we are going to continue to move toward a biological environment. And don't kid yourself. The information age, for all of its promise of benefitting humankind, is still an environment of survival of the fittest. If you don't make your defenders more fit for this job, the implications are clear for the survival of your organization.

The logic of biology is inescapable in the Internet of today. The relationships are clear, and we need to start learning from the long history of biology in order to be effective in the information world of the future. Similarly, biology will ultimately benefit from the the lessons we learn in the computing environment.


About The Author:

Fred Cohen is exploring the minimum raise as a Principal Member of Technical Staff at Sandia National Laboratories, helping clients meet their information protection needs as the Managing Director of Fred Cohen and Associates in Livermore California, and educating defenders over-the-Internet on all aspects of information protection as a practitioner in residence in the University of New Haven's Forensic Sciences Program. He can be reached by sending email to fred at all.net or visiting /