Re: [iwar] Digest Number 256
From: Tony Bartoletti
From: azb@llnl.gov
To: iwar@egroups.com
Mon, 23 Oct 2000 15:07:46 -0700
fc Mon Oct 23 18:02:24 2000
Received: from 207.222.214.225
by localhost with POP3 (fetchmail-5.1.0)
for fc@localhost (single-drop); Mon, 23 Oct 2000 18:02:24 -0700 (PDT)
Received: by multi33.netcomi.com for fc
(with Netcom Interactive pop3d (v1.21.1 1998/05/07) Tue Oct 24 00:58:33 2000)
X-From_: sentto-279987-561-972338094-fc=all.net@returns.onelist.com Mon Oct 23 16:55:07 2000
Received: from cj.egroups.com (cj.egroups.com [208.50.144.68]) by multi33.netcomi.com (8.8.5/8.7.4) with SMTP id QAA07274 for ; Mon, 23 Oct 2000 16:55:07 -0500
X-eGroups-Return: sentto-279987-561-972338094-fc=all.net@returns.onelist.com
Received: from [10.1.10.37] by cj.egroups.com with NNFMP; 23 Oct 2000 21:55:04 -0000
X-Sender: azb@llnl.gov
X-Apparently-To: iwar@egroups.com
Received: (EGP: mail-6_1_0); 23 Oct 2000 21:54:52 -0000
Received: (qmail 1916 invoked from network); 23 Oct 2000 21:54:31 -0000
Received: from unknown (10.1.10.142) by m3.onelist.org with QMQP; 23 Oct 2000 21:54:31 -0000
Received: from unknown (HELO poptop.llnl.gov) (128.115.41.70) by mta3 with SMTP; 23 Oct 2000 21:54:31 -0000
Received: from catalyst (catalyst.llnl.gov [128.115.222.68]) by poptop.llnl.gov (8.8.8/LLNL-3.0.2/pop.llnl.gov-5.1) with ESMTP id OAA13791 for ; Mon, 23 Oct 2000 14:54:28 -0700 (PDT)
Message-Id: <4.2.2.20001023135907.00a9aba0@poptop.llnl.gov>
X-Sender: e048786@poptop.llnl.gov
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.2
To: iwar@egroups.com
In-Reply-To: <0394212231217a0EMAIL002@email002>
From: Tony Bartoletti
MIME-Version: 1.0
Mailing-List: list iwar@egroups.com; contact iwar-owner@egroups.com
Delivered-To: mailing list iwar@egroups.com
Precedence: bulk
List-Unsubscribe:
Date: Mon, 23 Oct 2000 15:07:46 -0700
Reply-To: iwar@egroups.com
Subject: Re: [iwar] Digest Number 256
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
>
>Quote from [http://www.nukefix.org/forecast.html]
>"Specifically, the book introduces the reader to the *Formula k* model
>which seeks to show how long nuclear peace would tend to continue at
>different levels of proliferation and peacefulness.
>
>"This simple mathematical method illustrates levels of peacefulness
>required to sustain peace for designated periods, and purports to predict
>conventional warfare with considerable accuracy. Though some theorists may
>object to the use of mathematical models, Jeanes' method is highly
>original and attractive. His central argument is that for any given
>probability of a nuclear war per year, there is an expected time span
>until it occurs. Thus. the longer we wait without creating a safer world,
>the more likely it is that nuclear warfare will occur. A solid empirical
>foundation and a comparative platform have been built on the extensive
>analysis of numerous conventional wars since 1820."
Without attempting to address the rigor of the mathematical models, I think
that
these results are largely (uncommon!) common sense. Think of 20 year flood
tables,
and 50 year flood tables, and 100 year flood tables. The recognition that
there are
"bigger ones out there" is almost inescapable, and failure to undertake
continual
efforts to curtail, divert or withstand an ever-greater onslaught is to
court an
eventual disaster.
This thread began when Ozair Rasheed asked why the lesser-developed
countries (LDCs)
become the focus of our fears with regard to proliferation. The answer that
was given
is valid (lower expectation on "command and control") but could be further
multiplied
when considering yet smaller "cells" and even individuals. Timothy McVeigh
(sp?) we
believe, took down a federal building with a rented van and fertilizer.
Increasingly, protective measures need to focus upon motivations, just as
preventative
medicine is likely more effective than disease-treatment. Yes, there are
unreasonable
individuals out there, but when there are organized groups willing to take
suicidal
measures to seek your destruction, you cannot avoid the question "what have
I done
to bring this on" and plan forever that the playing field favors your
team. Serious
measures to reduce tensions must come into play, and a willingness to yield
to a
global consensus of "justice" is a necessary component.
(IMHO! :)
___tony___
Tony Bartoletti 925-422-3881
Information Operations, Warfare and Assurance Center
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Livermore, CA 94551-9900
-------------------------- eGroups Sponsor -------------------------~-~>
eGroups eLerts
It's Easy. It's Fun. Best of All, it's Free!
http://click.egroups.com/1/9698/14/_/595019/_/972338094/
---------------------------------------------------------------------_->
------------------
http://all.net/