Re: [iwar] Probability times time produces what?


From: Fred Cohen
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Mon, 23 Oct 2000 20:06:57 -0700 (PDT) 

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In-Reply-To: <4.2.2.20001023190954.00ac2b40@poptop.llnl.gov> from "Tony Bartoletti" at Oct 23, 2000 07:31:00 PM
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Date: Mon, 23 Oct 2000 20:06:57 -0700 (PDT)
Reply-To: iwar@egroups.com
Subject: Re: [iwar] Probability times time produces what?
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Per the message sent by Tony Bartoletti:
...
> This is a good point, and attempts to apply standard statistical arguments 
> to human and social behavior should be regarded with much  suspicion.
> Still, the frequency of everything from automobile accidents to 
> bank robberies can reveal some degree of predictability, (affected by such 
> measures as drivers education programs or many other variables, yes, but 
> still amenable to statistical-like treatment.)  Why?  I can only surmise 
> that, despite the human capacity for rational thought and exercise of free 
> will, much of our behaviors are still rooted in "autonomous response" or 
> actions of habit.

So, I ask knowing the answer...  What is the probability of an
accidental nuclear detonation? And what is the probability that a small
nation with nuclear weapons will decide to use them irresponsibly or be
unable to protect them?

The answer is... nobody knows.

According to published documents in the open literature, the probability
of accidental nuclear detonation of weapons in the US nuclear stockpile
under 'abnormal' circumstances (whatver that means) is 'less than' one
in a million.  It's even lower under 'normal' circumstances (whatever
that means).  Note that the 'less than' - which means that we don't know
what the real probability is, but we do know an upper bound on it.

So far, as far as I can tell from the press, there have been no - count
them ZERO - accidental nuclear weapons explosions or nuclear weapons
explosions caused by a nation-state losing control over their weapons. 
How can we do statistics when there are ZERO examples?

On to the information warfare issue...  What was that again? Maybe a
rogue state will use a nuclear weapon to take out the information
systems of a city? Ah well...  perhaps we should move on to something
more likely...

FC

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