Re: [iwar] Probability times time produces what?
From: Fred Cohen
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In-Reply-To: <4.2.2.20001024104040.00a9d560@poptop.llnl.gov> from "Tony Bartoletti" at Oct 24, 2000 10:49:59 AM
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Date: Tue, 24 Oct 2000 10:56:13 -0700 (PDT)
Reply-To: iwar@egroups.com
Subject: Re: [iwar] Probability times time produces what?
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Per the message sent by Tony Bartoletti:
> >So, I ask knowing the answer... What is the probability of an
> >accidental nuclear detonation? And what is the probability that a small
> >nation with nuclear weapons will decide to use them irresponsibly or be
> >unable to protect them?
> >
> >The answer is... nobody knows.
> >
> >According to published documents in the open literature, the probability
> >of accidental nuclear detonation of weapons in the US nuclear stockpile
> >under 'abnormal' circumstances (whatver that means) is 'less than' one
> >in a million. It's even lower under 'normal' circumstances (whatever
> >that means). Note that the 'less than' - which means that we don't know
> >what the real probability is, but we do know an upper bound on it.
> Even if such statistical predictions were believable, they are missing
> a time scale. One-in-a-million ... per year? per second? per millenium?
Probability is not defined in terms of time as far as I am aware. It is
defined in terms of events. If I don't roll a die for a long time, then
the probability of a 1, 2, or 3 remains the same. So this is the
probability per event that is of interest.
> If they intend "per Ever" I must indeed laugh.
I can hear you laughing... The question is: What is an event?
An event is an occurance in which something might happen. For example,
every time we roll the 6-sided die, it is an event in which you might
get a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or perhaps something else... Having more people
with control over weapons tends to increase the number of events and
thus increases the chances of one of those one in a million or more bad
events taking place. Hence a strong argument for lower numbers of
people with the ability to cause events can be made if you want to be
sure that the probabilities stay low.
FC
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