Antwort: Re: Antwort: [iwar] interesting pointer


From: Markus Spindler
From: Markus.Spindler@ascom.ch
To: iwar@yahoogroups.com

Tue, 6 Mar 2001 15:30:26 +0100


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Date: Tue, 6 Mar 2001 15:30:26 +0100
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Subject: Antwort: Re: Antwort: [iwar] interesting pointer
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Fred, all,

I consider the actual crash rather boring (see below).
What I think is very interesting and worthwhile discussing
is the IWAR aspect of this: We have at hand a realtime example
of perception management, even involving substantial assets
(US presence on naval bases in Japan). So go on,
lets discuss...

Did the involved parties do their homework?
What do (or should) they want to achieve, and do they succeed?
Obviously, right now the Japanese handle the situation much
to their advantage. Has anybody a guess on the next moves
of the Navy? Of the Japanese?

Regards, Markus






ps: why the accident is boring:

every stretch of water has its access rights (national territory,
etc.etc.),
rules who has to get out of the way of whome,
and sometimes even speed limits.
Submarines have additional rules for vertical movement.

So far, everything can be checked easily. He who violates
one of the rules is to blame.

Next level is the tragical/cynical remaining risk
on vertical sub movement:
sub captains can give at most a best guess what will expect
them on surface. So if you are hardly detectable
(eg. stealth, or simply "Harry Muscleman crossing the pacific on
a limp biscuit") then you might get hit by a sub popping up.
If everybody followed the rules, this is simply a (tragical)
accident that cannot be avoided by precaution.
The last question in this case would be whether the sub owner
pays some compensation to the sunken vessel's owner
out of a "general risk acceptance running subs".



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