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In-Reply-To: <9if8hc+se55@eGroups.com> from "ellisd@cs.ucsb.edu" at Jul 10, 2001 03:55:24 PM
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From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
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Date: Tue, 10 Jul 2001 18:17:14 -0700 (PDT)
Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [iwar] Re: Duration of Cyber Conflicts
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Per the message sent by ellisd@cs.ucsb.edu:
...
> Another way in which a short offensive may be helpful is to avert an
> engagement. Imagine Iraq engages Kuwait (back up to the original
> scenario, while maintaining current dependence on a virtual
> infrastructure). The US waves a fist saying "get out or else". Iraq
> ignores the threat. The US starts the slow process of building forces
> in the region. Iraq makes a threat to the effect that it will stab
> the heart of the western devil (an intentionally ambiguous threat).
> Later that day the president calls their bluff and issues orders for
> more forces to move into the area. The next day, the western power
> grid is shut off.
Congratulations - you have just lost your credibility.
> Several airports are "tainted" such that bad things
> happen. Several companies file reports of financial losses and the
> stock markets plummet. The US population is nearly split in opinion
> on action in the area. Nobody takes claim for the incidents, but
> everyone guesses it was Iraq. How many days would it take to complete
> deter popular opinion? This tactic might even be more effective than
> putting reporters' cameras in Vietnam. I think more Americans would
> be more offended by not being able to watch TV or have lights than by
> watching the attrocities of war.
The problem with your scenario is that (1) it makes all sorts of
assumptions about mystical magical capabilities of an enemy and (2) it
ignores all sensibilities about the way things really work in the world.
Except for these two minor flaws, it would make for a good propaganda
piece to support the information operations budget of the DoD and might
even make a good science fiction story... Oops "The Day The World Stood
Still" already did it... and it was a great story... but now back to
reality please...
FC
--
Fred Cohen at Sandia National Laboratories at tel:925-294-2087 fax:925-294-1225
Fred Cohen & Associates: http://all.net - fc@all.net - tel/fax:925-454-0171
Fred Cohen - Practitioner in Residence - The University of New Haven
This communication is confidential to the parties it is intended to serve.
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : 2001-09-29 21:08:37 PDT