Re: [iwar] Re: Why 'conventional' terrorist groups Not utilizing Cyber

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-08-27 09:09:11


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In-Reply-To: <9mdpq3+rjc1@eGroups.com> from "ellisd@cs.ucsb.edu" at Aug 27, 2001 03:42:59 PM
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From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
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Date: Mon, 27 Aug 2001 09:09:11 -0700 (PDT)
Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [iwar] Re: Why 'conventional' terrorist groups Not utilizing Cyber
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Per the message sent by ellisd@cs.ucsb.edu:

> Agreed.  So an analysis of what makes them more complex is necessary?

If you say so - necessary for what?

> >This raises the cost, likelihood
> > of getting caught, and likelihood of failure.  All things identified
> > groups avoid for the most part. 

> Non sequitor.  Does an increase in complexity lead to higher costs, an 
> increase in attribution, or likely of failure? 

All of the above.

> Higher costs are likely to be bounded by the amount of human effort 
> required, which is a very low-order function.

Not for complex attacks.

> Attribution is only more likely as the heinousness of the attack 
> grows.  The more heinous, the more man power will be thrown at it 
> from the victim to discern who to blame.  However, even here, the 
> law of diminishing returns plays a significant role. There is a tight 
> asymptotic upper bound for attribution given conventional methods of 
> traceback.

The more complex, the larger the infrastructure in support of it, thus
the larger the footprint.  Most terrorist acts involve a very small
number of individual actors - part of their operations security.

> > Several to many orders of magnitude more expensive for a strong IW
> > attack than a pipe bomb.  

> How did either of us come to our conclusion?

Like I said, I have studied this in some depth over an extended period
of time using specific examples.  How did you come to your conclusions?

FC
--This communication is confidential to the parties it is intended to serve--
Fred Cohen		Fred Cohen & Associates.........tel/fax:925-454-0171
fc@all.net		The University of New Haven.....http://www.unhca.com/
http://all.net/		Sandia National Laboratories....tel:925-294-2087


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