Return-Path: <sentto-279987-1807-1000334784-fc=all.net@returns.onelist.com> Delivered-To: fc@all.net Received: from 204.181.12.215 by localhost with POP3 (fetchmail-5.1.0) for fc@localhost (single-drop); Wed, 12 Sep 2001 16:38:10 -0700 (PDT) Received: (qmail 1211 invoked by uid 510); 12 Sep 2001 23:36:19 -0000 Received: from n22.groups.yahoo.com (216.115.96.72) by 204.181.12.215 with SMTP; 12 Sep 2001 23:36:19 -0000 X-eGroups-Return: sentto-279987-1807-1000334784-fc=all.net@returns.onelist.com Received: from [10.1.4.52] by cj.egroups.com with NNFMP; 12 Sep 2001 22:46:26 -0000 X-Sender: fc@big.all.net X-Apparently-To: iwar@onelist.com Received: (EGP: mail-7_3_2_1); 12 Sep 2001 22:46:24 -0000 Received: (qmail 85359 invoked from network); 12 Sep 2001 22:42:52 -0000 Received: from unknown (10.1.10.27) by m8.onelist.org with QMQP; 12 Sep 2001 22:42:52 -0000 Received: from unknown (HELO big.all.net) (65.0.156.78) by mta2 with SMTP; 12 Sep 2001 22:42:51 -0000 Received: (from fc@localhost) by big.all.net (8.9.3/8.7.3) id PAA05247 for iwar@onelist.com; Wed, 12 Sep 2001 15:33:40 -0700 Message-Id: <200109122233.PAA05247@big.all.net> To: iwar@onelist.com (Information Warfare Mailing List) Organization: I'm not allowed to say X-Mailer: don't even ask X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL1] From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net> Mailing-List: list iwar@yahoogroups.com; contact iwar-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list iwar@yahoogroups.com Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:iwar-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com> Date: Wed, 12 Sep 2001 15:33:40 -0700 (PDT) Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [iwar] [fc:Full-Global-Recession-'Highly-Likely'] Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit USA Today September 12, 2001 Full Global Recession 'Highly Likely' By George Hager, USA Today WASHINGTON - Economists fear that Tuesday's terrorist attacks on New York and Washington could be the push that sends the world into its first global recession since 1974 - especially if the already teetering U.S. economy falls into its first major downturn since 1991. "A full-blown global recession is highly likely," says Sung Won Sohn, chief economist for Wells Fargo, who predicts that the shock will damage U.S. consumer confidence the way Iraq's invasion of Kuwait did in 1990, sending the nation into recession. "The rest of the world, which has been in a recession, will suffer more. Since the global economy is interwoven through trade and investment, all of us will be worse off," Sohn says. Japan is already struggling through a profound slump, and Europe has slowed far more sharply than expected this year, chiefly due to fallout from the U.S. slump. Economists who think a worldwide recession is possible stress a domino theory that starts with the USA and ripples around the globe. "If the U.S. takes a bigger hit, then of course it will drag down everything else," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for DRI-WEFA. The chief problem is fear and uncertainty: Will there be more terrorist attacks? Will the U.S. response provoke a wider conflict? Will the price of oil rise to damaging heights again? And will the world's stock markets fall even more than they already have? "The level of uncertainty that this act will bring will not be limited to the U.S.," says Anthony Chan, chief economist for Banc One Investment Advisors. "All over the world, we will see that uncertainty will rise and with that will come diminished growth. The fact that such terrorist acts came in (waves) does suggest that anything resembling normalcy will take quite some time to regain." Just as uncertain, though, is how destabilizing any of this will turn out to be. "No one knows what this means for the United States, the G7 (group of industrialized nations), for anyone, except that some kind of inflection point in history seems almost certain to be defined by this event," says Carl Weinberg, chief economist for High Frequency Economics. Optimists are depending on the Federal Reserve and the rest of the world's central banks to step up and flood the world financial system with cash to steady investors. Presuming that happens - and assuming Tuesday's attacks were the last and not just the beginning of a cycle - anxious markets could eventually settle down, which would help the world economy do the same. "Central banks are already acting to make sure the financial markets have the liquidity to operate smoothly," says Ken Mayland of ClearView Economics. Over the short run, stock prices will plunge, and the prices of oil and gold will probably shoot up. But "these sorts of events are very transitory," Mayland says. "I really believe this is not going to have a lasting negative effect on our economy or other economies." ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~--> Secure your servers with 128-bit SSL encryption! Grab your copy of VeriSign's FREE Guide: "Securing Your Web Site for Business." 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This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : 2001-09-29 21:08:42 PDT