[iwar] [fc:Stratfor's.assessment.of.the.Islamic.Radical.Network]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-09-17 06:15:46


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Subject: [iwar] [fc:Stratfor's.assessment.of.the.Islamic.Radical.Network]
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 S T R A T F O R
 
 THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY
 
 ____________________________________________________
 16 September 2001
 
 COMPLIMENTARY INTELLIGENCE REPORT - FULL TEXT
 ____________________________________________________
 
 **NOTE**
 
 This is a complimentary full-text intelligence report,
 normally reserved for members only. For full-text reports
 every day and access to the full range of global
 intelligence, become a member today!
 
       http://www.stratfor.com/COMPANY/info.htm
 ____________________________________________________
 
 U.S. Faces Islamic Radical Network
 2100 GMT, 010916
 
 Summary
 
 This week's terrorist attacks demonstrate clearly for
 the first time the existence of a multi-national, global
 network of Islamic radicals and their sympathizers. The
 United States is gearing up for war against an enemy
 that may span half the globe and is comprised of
 thousands individuals and different organizations.
 
 Analysis
 
 The United States has declared war on international
 terrorism. In his weekly radio address Sept. 15 U.S.
 President George W. Bush warned Americans to brace
 themselves for "a conflict without battlefields or
 beachheads," and called on U.S. military personnel to
 get ready for battle. The president earlier met with his
 top security advisors at Camp David in order to hammer
 out a U.S. military response to the Sept. 11 terrorist
 attacks on the United States.
 
 Identifying the enemy, however, will be neither simple
 nor straightforward. A number of officials including
 U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell have named Saudi
 exile Osama bin Laden as the chief suspect. But evidence
 suggests that while his umbrella organization Al-Qaida
 was involved at some point, bin Laden himself isn't
 likely the mastermind behind the attacks. The skill and
 scope of the operation indicates that more than one base
 of support was necessary.
 
 The operational resources required to pull off this
 week's attacks indicate the existence of a much larger
 threat, a multi-national radical Islamic network with
 operatives and sympathizers all across the globe. Such a
 network likely connects a variety of Islamic radical and
 terrorist groups.
 
 Understanding this is the key to Washington's
 warfighting strategy. In aiming to dismantle the
 infrastructure supporting terrorist groups, the United
 States will now begin focusing efforts on identifying
 members and supporters of this global network. Bin Laden
 and Al-Qaida will likely be only the first targets.
 
 As the world's most notorious terrorist leader bin Laden
 has provided training, logistics and support to a host
 of Islamic radicals including Algerian, Egyptian,
 Jordanian, Pakistani, Sudanese, Syrian and Yemeni
 nationals. His training camps in Afghanistan provide a
 basis for learning the tools and techniques of
 terrorism. In a way bin Laden could be thought of as the
 president of a university devoted to the education of
 radical Islamic terrorists.
 
 But taking out bin Laden won't end the threat of more
 terrorist attacks against the United States, since logic
 dictates that Al-Qaida could not have been the only
 organization involved in the Sept. 11 strikes.
 
 Like any business venture, no one group would be able to
 supply all the resources. Instead, various aspects of
 the operation would be farmed out to different groups or
 individuals within the network. Al-Qaida as an umbrella
 organization is but one group within a network of
 radical Islamic organizations that stretches from Cairo
 to Manila, from Kabul to Algiers.
 
 The sheer scope and skill with which the operations were
 carried out required several levels of planning,
 organizing, intelligence and operational experience and
 capabilities. 
 
 The masterminds behind this week's operation began
 forming their attack plan years ago. They then needed to
 locate funding and likely turned to sympathetic
 financiers who could arrange for aid from even more
 sympathetic donors. The planners also set up separate
 departments with directors to handle
 counterintelligence, logistics, training, diplomatic
 covers and passports, finances and recruitment. At the
 same time, security is maintained by isolating each
 department from the others so that the organization is
 not compromised.
 
 Each division required support from a variety of
 sources, which neither bin Laden nor his network could
 provide. In fact, to say bin Laden himself masterminded
 the assault overlooks some important limitations under
 which he is currently operating.
 
 For one he is trapped in Afghanistan and is limited in
 what he can do. The Saudi dissident cannot even make
 phone calls and has had to resort to courier services in
 order to communicate with his associates.
 
 For years, the United States tracked communications in
 country and listened in on his phone conversations made
 over the Immarsat-3 satellite telephone network.
 Directing an operation like the one that took place
 Sept. 11 would require flexible management that could
 adapt to a variety of situations, necessitating quick
 and reliable means of communication.
 
 Even financing the operation would have required
 resources beyond bin Laden and Al-Qaida's ability.
 According to U.S. officials quoted by United Press
 International, Washington had bin Laden's financial and
 operational networks almost "completely mapped" out in
 detail by mid-1997.
 
 This suggest that bin Laden's finances have been at most
 severely limited and at least under constant
 surveillance. It would have been impossible for his
 bankers to wire money to operatives in the United States
 without tipping off U.S. intelligence agencies. Clearly,
 bin Laden could not have financed this week's operation
 alone. 
 
 Al-Qaida could have easily provided training and perhaps
 even recruits. But there are several other organizations
 that could also be tapped for intelligence, logistical
 assistance, operational planning and financing. For
 example, the Egyptian group al-Gama'at al-Islamiyya
 orchestrated the bombing of the World Trade Center in
 1993 and has experience operating in the United States.
 It also has links to Egyptian intelligence and business
 leaders who travel frequently and could provide
 information on airline security standards in the United
 States.
 
 Another example can be seen in the bombing of the USS
 Cole in Yemen last October. The group blamed for that
 attack has been linked to bin Laden, but there is no
 evidence that it acted directly under his command. That
 group, like the recent attackers, employed crude tactics
 and weapons in a sophisticated manner to cause massive
 damage. It managed to severely damage a U.S. destroyer,
 not to mention the U.S. sense of dominance, with a
 rubber inflatable boat.
 
 Indeed, there are hundreds of radical Islamic
 organizations operating around the world, all individual
 and distinct from each other, that could have provided
 support. Although in the past a majority focused on
 local issues and did not operate beyond their national
 borders, a new picture is now emerging.
 
 This picture is one of a global network tying all
 Islamic groups together in a loose coalition. Like the
 Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, this network is comprised
 of organizations and sympathetic individuals from all
 over the Muslim world, including financiers and aid
 donors, government officials and diplomats, former and
 possibly current military officers, intelligence agents,
 former and current guerrilla and militant groups,
 information technology specialists and operational
 commanders and their lieutenants.
 
 It is then quite possible that the group that
 masterminded the Sept. 11 terror attacks is comprised of
 a collection of individuals from several different
 countries. Indeed, the FBI's list of suspects reads like
 a student roster from the renowned Al-Ahzar University
 in Cairo. The operatives who carried out the attack came
 from countries across the Middle East, including
 possibly Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the United
 Arab Emirates. There was no local issue tying them all
 together. 
 
 The United States thinks it is going to war with bin
 Laden, Al-Qaida or the unnamed group directly
 responsible for this week's attacks. But taking down the
 infrastructure supporting these groups will require the
 U.S. to identify and dismantle the larger, global
 network. That, like dismantling the drug trafficking
 networks in Latin America, West Africa or Europe, will
 be a monumental task.
 
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