[iwar] [fc:Western.Press.Review:.Assessing.The.War.In.Afghanistan,.Free.Expression.In.Russia]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2002-01-08 06:52:43
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Western Press Review: Assessing The War In Afghanistan, Free Expression In Russia

Monday, January 07, 2002

Prague, 7 January 2002 (RFE/RL) -- Several commentaries in the Western
press take a look at the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan on its
three-month anniversary and attempt to assess its successes and
failures.  Other topics include upcoming elections and the economy in
Germany, ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan, free expression in
Russia, Kazakhstan's antinuclear role, and the Armenian economy. 

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL EUROPE:

In a contribution to "The Wall Street Journal Europe," Loren Thompson of
the Lexington Institute and a professor of security studies at
Georgetown University looks at some of the lessons to be learned from
the U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan. 

First, he says, this operation shows "that it is impossible to know with
certainty when and where new challenges will arise." Who would have
expected an air attack on U.S.  soil, followed by a U.S.  war in a
remote country? he asks. 

A second lesson, says Thompson, is that despite advances in military
equipment and organization, "geography still matters." He says Central
Asia is a key strategic area, and America's current policy "of depending
on weak, nondemocratic regimes to provide base access is doomed to
failure."

A third lesson is that information technology is a revolution that will
lead to huge gains in military capability.  The idea that "unity of
purpose" remains an important ingredient for military success is another
lesson to be learned, says Thompson, while yet another highlights the
weaknesses of the U.S.'s past military spending priorities. 

Thompson says a final lesson is "the inescapable link between military
power and money." Peace "is a fleeting condition, [and] war is never far
away," he writes.  "It is irresponsible to plan a military posture based
on the presumption of amity, or early warning, or a predictability of
threats," he says. 

WASHINGTON POST FOREIGN SERVICE:

A news analysis by Bradley Graham of the "Washington Post Foreign
Service" examines whether the U.S.  approach in Afghanistan of relying
on local anti-Taliban troops to do most of the on-the-ground military
work has been successful. 

American reliance on Afghan tribal militias to battle Taliban and
Al-Qaeda forces and hunt down their leaders has been "a signature
feature" of the war in Afghanistan, he says.  "By counting on proxy
forces to take the lead in ground operations, the Pentagon has reduced
the potential loss of U.S.  military lives and minimized political
backlash in Muslim countries about an invading Western force," writes
Graham.  "But the strategy has come at a cost in military efficiency and
U.S.  control."

Critics contend that it has resulted in missed opportunities and
inconclusive outcomes.  "At least twice, central targets of the U.S. 
manhunt have seemed to slip narrowly past ground assaults led by Afghan
forces," writes Graham.  "[And] the ability of Afghan forces to complete
the job [of] bringing the top fugitive leaders to justice remains
uncertain."

With the fall of Taliban, he says, local leaders "have appeared more
interested in consolidating their power than pursuing additional U.S. 
objectives." Graham says Pentagon officials defend their strategy but
admit they "have had to make do with less control over events on the
ground and accept a slower pace in some operations."

FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE ZEITUNG:

In the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung," columnist Jurgen Dunsch looks
at Germany's economy in relation to its upcoming elections.  He says
German Finance Minister Hans Eishel has offered little but reassuring
platitudes on the economic outlook lately.  However, Dunsch adds,
"Platitudes hold particular appeal in an election year."

But the federal government "will not be able to avoid giving a forecast
for expected economic growth in concrete numbers," he says, adding that
"the estimate isn't only a question of statistical data, always subject
to basis data errors.  The economic policy environment is also a
factor."

Dunsch says the government's annual economic report, due out this month,
will probably "be spiced with a mighty pinch of optimism.  Whether the
government will lend a hand with programs financed by debt, amounting to
little actual relief, remains to be seen.  After all -- and rather
embarrassingly -- it will already be pretty apparent by the federal
election in September whether the growth forecast holds."

SUEDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG:

An editorial in today's "Sueddeutsche Zeitung" discusses relations
between India and Pakistan in light of the weekend conference (4-6
January) of South Asian countries in Katmandu.  The editorial says
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf took the initiative in offering to
shake hands with his Indian counterpart, Prime Minister Atal Bihar
Vajpayee.  But the paper says, "no use was made of the chance to ease
tensions regarding the conflict over Kashmir." The strained situation
provoked by the attack on the Indian parliament on 13 December has
resulted in heavily armed troops lining the common border between the
two countries, and "any further terrorist action could lead to a fourth
war between the two countries," it says. 

Yet the editorial observes that Pakistan has taken the initiative in
identifying the terrorist perpetrators and taking them into custody. 
But Pakistan cannot go so far as to relinquish its claims to Kashmir, it
says.  Such an action would cause radicals to question Musharraf's
position and peace would be jeopardized even more.  Musharraf has shown
willingness to reach a compromise, says the paper.  It is now India's
turn to make the next move. 

INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE:

Today's "International Herald Tribune" carries a news analysis by Philip
Bowring on the India-Pakistan tensions.  "War will surely be avoided
this time around," Bowring says, but he adds that the issues run deep
for both nations.  "The struggle is not just about land," he says.  "For
India, the inclusion of a predominantly Muslim state within the borders
of a plural nation is a living symbol of the country's secular status. 
As with Palestine, the division of India was forced on the majority by
the colonial power.  [For] Pakistanis, Kashmir is rightfully theirs as
heirs to the Muslim-majority areas of British India." Kashmiris "would
have chosen to join Pakistan in 1948, and they would do so today were
they given self-determination," he says. 

Bowring suggests that independence for Kashmir may be the best solution,
and would also have benefits for India.  While it would be difficult for
India to accept, Bangladesh has already set a precedent.  "India played
the key role in the breakaway of the former East Pakistan to form
Bangladesh," he writes.  "And an independent Kashmir, with or without
the Pakistani-ruled portion, would be tied more closely to India than to
Pakistan.  Meanwhile, if the Kashmir issues were defused, Pakistan's
attention would shift to its western frontiers.  Economic cooperation
with Indian Punjab could flourish," Bowring adds. 

THE BOSTON GLOBE:

An editorial in "The Boston Globe" considers the Christmas Day (25
December) conviction of Russian journalist and former navy Captain
Grigorii Pasko.  Pasko was convicted on charges of treason for passing
unclassified information on the Russian Navy dumping nuclear waste into
the Sea of Japan to a Japanese television network.  The editorial says,
"Russian security services continue to treat as treasonous spies
journalists, ecologists, and other citizens seeking to exercise basic
rights of free expression."

The paper says Pasko's conviction "ought to trouble anyone who wishes to
see Russia overcome its police-state past.  The verdict casts doubt on
the independence of the judiciary, or at least on its military branch."

The many inherent contradictions in Pasko's case may help him win his
appeal, says the editorial.  But they also indicate "that the government
of Russian President Vladimir Putin will have to work toward
implementing a fair and consistent justice system if it wants Russia to
join the club of democratic nations grounded in the rule of law.  [The]
strength of democratic societies resides in their ability to discover
and correct their own deficiencies.  When Pasko reported on the
environmental calamity of his country's dumping of nuclear wastes, he
was acting as an indispensable purifier of Russia's body politic.  The
security services seeking to punish him for telling truth to power are
injecting the old totalitarian poisons into the new Russia."

THE BOSTON GLOBE:

Also in "The Boston Globe," Graham Allison says Kazakhstan must take the
lead in creating a nuclear-free zone in Central Asia.  Had Kazakhstan
taken control of the nuclear warheads left on its territory at the
collapse of the Soviet Union, he says, "it would [have] commanded an
arsenal larger than those of the United Kingdom, France, and China
combined." Instead, Kazakhstan "volunteered to return all nuclear
weapons to Russia, signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and
entered the world as a non-nuclear state." Allison adds that Kazakh
President Nursultan Nazarbaev "has long been a vigorous supporter of the
creation of a nuclear weapons-free zone in Central Asia."

But this campaign has encountered difficulties over the last several
years, says Allison.  Several Central Asian nations have expressed their
willingness "to allow for the complete denuclearization of the region. 
Russia, however, has voiced objections."

"Nazarbaev must take the lead to overcome Russia's objections to the
Central Asian Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone," says Allison.  "The advantages
of creating a stable region free of nuclear threat far outweigh whatever
tactical advantages might be gained from a redeployment of nuclear
weapons in Central Asia."

Allison says that during Nazarbaev's recent visit to Washington, the two
countries reaffirmed several of their shared interests.  Their
presidents "should now instruct their governments to overcome remaining
obstacles to assure that the nexus between Russia, China, Iran, and
Afghanistan remains free of nuclear weapons."

EURASIA VIEW:

In "Eurasia View," Yerevan-based journalist Haroutiun Khachatrian says
that Armenia's economy, "despite having one of the most liberal
legislative frameworks among the states of the former Soviet Union, is
struggling with stubborn corruption and emigration." After its
independence in 1991, Armenia created a stable banking system,
privatized land, and sought rapid market transition, he says.  However,
unemployment has remained a persistent problem, and "between 800,000 and
1.2 million [of] the country's 3.8 million population have emigrated in
search of work."

In recent years, Khachatrian says, "officials have attempted to
implement a variety of job-creation programs and have passed laws
designed to improve the business climate.  On the policy level, these
efforts have succeeded," he says.  But growth throughout 2001 has
appeared "to have little impact on living standards.  Over half the
population remains below the poverty line.  [Armenians] remain
dissatisfied with their country's economic performance, and continue to
leave.  The combination of a shrinking population and stubborn poverty
creates something of a vicious cycle," says Khachatrian. 

"The Spitak earthquake of 1988, the ongoing war in Nagorno-Karabakh, and
sporadic blockades of communications passing through Azerbaijan, Turkey,
and Georgia make Armenian business especially slow going.  But the core
of the problem is the inability of authorities to implement legislation,
especially in tax collection.  In addition, corruption remains
persistent," he says. 

THE BOSTON GLOBE:

A editorial in "The Boston Globe" is critical of the U.S.-led military
operation in Afghanistan in light of reports that Osama bin Laden, the
prime suspect behind the September attacks on New York and Washington,
may have escaped into Pakistan. 

"U.S.  intelligence fears that Osama bin Laden has left Afghanistan.  If
he has indeed survived, the question must be asked: Why was he not
surrounded by a tight perimeter of U.S.  ground forces when he was
thought to be hiding in a cave near the Pakistan border? U.S.  ground
troops were needed not to fight their way up the mountainsides of Tora
Bora but solely to cut off bin Laden's escape routes," it says.  Now,
the Pentagon must re-focus its attention on other parts of the world,
Somalia included, to be ready to act should bin Laden or his followers
be spotted somewhere else. 

"It is worth risking some casualties to put bin Laden out of business. 
Otherwise Americans can expect to suffer more deadly terrorist attacks. 
Once bin Laden and the other bosses of his gang are eliminated, there is
a good chance the diverse Islamist groups on the [Al-] Qaeda payroll
will go their separate ways, resuming their original battles against
well-defended secular regimes such as those in Egypt or Algeria."

LE SOIR:

An analysis in Belgium's daily "Le Soir" discusses the fact that, after
three months of the U.S.-led offensive in Afghanistan, Osama bin Laden
and former Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar remain at large.  The
paper notes that their capture

"officially constitute the principle objective of the war in
Afghanistan." However, it says, Washington is no longer hiding the fact
that it does not know where bin Laden is, says the paper. 

Mullah Omar, for his part, "succeeded in escaping American forces and
Afghan [troops] Saturday (5 January) [with] a motor bike," the paper
notes.  Omar, "who was reportedly surrounded for nearly a week by Afghan
soldiers and U.S.  commandos in a mountain village in Helmand province
[is] thus, once again, on the run," writes "Le Soir." It adds that
Omar's escape occurred while negotiations were taking place for his
surrender. 

But "Le Soir" says despite this setback, Afghan authorities are not
acknowledging defeat.  The paper cites an official in the south of
Afghanistan as saying that they know where he is, but cannot reveal this
information.  Meanwhile, says "Le Soir," U.S.  forces -- who have
succeeded in capturing only a few top Taliban or Al-Qaeda officials --
are not losing hope of finding clues to bin Laden's whereabouts, as they
"meticulously excavate the caves around Tora Bora in the east, where he
was last located."

THE NEW YORK TIMES:

An editorial in "The New York Times" says that the United States' "first
political priority" is to strengthen the authority of interim Afghan
Prime Minister Hamid Karzai.  But it says "that objective is complicated
by the overriding American military priority of pursuing, capturing or
killing the remaining Taliban and [Al-] Qaeda forces, particularly Osama
bin Laden."

The editorial says that in its military campaign, the United States "has
had to use as surrogates warlords who are doing Washington's bidding to
expand their own power bases at the expense of their rivals.  [Their]
commitment to sustaining a strong government in Kabul may be nonexistent
or temporary," it says. 

"The United States will have to engage in some delicate diplomacy to
keep these groups from collapsing into the kind of chaotic warfare that
has engulfed Afghanistan in the past," adds the paper. 

The paper says that it is necessary to pursue the remaining Al-Qaeda
forces, as they "could very well re-emerge in the form of guerrilla
insurgencies menacing the government in Kabul." But somehow, it says,
"the United States must make sure that its military pursuit of the enemy
does not undercut the chances of stabilizing [Karzai's] government."

Copyright � 2001.  RFE/RL, Inc.  Reprinted with the permission of Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W.  Washington DC
20036.  http://www.rferl.org


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