Return-Path: <sentto-279987-4260-1010598976-fc=all.net@returns.groups.yahoo.com> Delivered-To: fc@all.net Received: from 204.181.12.215 [204.181.12.215] by localhost with POP3 (fetchmail-5.7.4) for fc@localhost (single-drop); Wed, 09 Jan 2002 09:58:08 -0800 (PST) Received: (qmail 32427 invoked by uid 510); 9 Jan 2002 17:56:38 -0000 Received: from n4.groups.yahoo.com (216.115.96.54) by all.net with SMTP; 9 Jan 2002 17:56:38 -0000 X-eGroups-Return: sentto-279987-4260-1010598976-fc=all.net@returns.groups.yahoo.com Received: from [216.115.97.164] by n4.groups.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 09 Jan 2002 17:56:18 -0000 X-Sender: lzkoch@attbi.com X-Apparently-To: iwar@onelist.com Received: (EGP: mail-8_0_1_3); 9 Jan 2002 17:56:15 -0000 Received: (qmail 64359 invoked from network); 9 Jan 2002 17:56:15 -0000 Received: from unknown (216.115.97.167) by m10.grp.snv.yahoo.com with QMQP; 9 Jan 2002 17:56:15 -0000 Received: from unknown (HELO rwcrmhc52.attbi.com) (216.148.227.88) by mta1.grp.snv.yahoo.com with SMTP; 9 Jan 2002 17:56:17 -0000 Received: from CB348209-B.attbi.com ([12.248.10.50]) by rwcrmhc52.attbi.com (InterMail vM.4.01.03.27 201-229-121-127-20010626) with ESMTP id <20020109175614.AQV20457.rwcrmhc52.attbi.com@CB348209-B.attbi.com>; Wed, 9 Jan 2002 17:56:14 +0000 Message-Id: <5.1.0.14.2.20020109114628.01abf8c8@mail.attbi.com> X-Sender: lzkoch@attbi.com@mail.attbi.com X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 To: iwar@yahoogroups.com,iwar@onelist.com (Information Warfare Mailing List) In-Reply-To: <200201090614.g096EvL29808@red.all.net> From: "Lewis Z. Koch" <lzkoch@attbi.com> Mailing-List: list iwar@yahoogroups.com; contact iwar-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list iwar@yahoogroups.com Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:iwar-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com> Date: Wed, 09 Jan 2002 11:57:05 -0600 Subject: Re: [iwar] [fc:Arms.Seizure.Backfires,.Wounds.Israel] Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit At 10:14 PM 1/8/2002 -0800, Fred Cohen wrote: >Arms Seizure Backfires, Wounds Israel >2120 GMT, 020108 > Fred: I have to respectfully disagree with you here. I think most, if not all of the journalists I've known these 40 years would, if confronted with the dispatch, cold, without any citation, dismiss it. "...of course it could be true..." you write. Of course ANYTHING can be true, but those stories without any semblance of real world citation can claim that little seen white elephants are running Tibet. Just because YOU haven't seen it doesn't make it impossible. I have no problem with you providing the list with the obvious self-serving thumbsuckers (hell, most thumbsuckers serve the purposes of person indulging.) But I do not think it provides any insight into the political/psychological mind set when the thumbsucker is just plopped down, as just another news story. I am going to "parse" several of the unsubstantiated claims in the report to show you what I mean: "Both the Palestinian Authority and Tehran have denied any connection to the Karine A, and a report in a prestigious British shipping journal contradicts Israeli allegations regarding the vessel's ownership." What we see above is the denial which is then tied to a "prestigious British shipping journal" which also "contradicts Israeli allegations regarding the vessel's ownership." OK -- what journal? -- who was the author of the article? --and what do we know or not know about his previous journalistic efforts? Perhaps we can detect the journal in question in this next para except that when read as a whole, it would make George Orwell sit up in his grave an applaud. "Furthermore, there are contradictory reports about the vessel's ownership. Israel claims Palestinians owned the ship, but Lloyd's List, a premier shipping publication owned by Lloyd's of London, reported Jan.7 that it was owned by an Iraqi national. According to Lloyd's, it was a Lebanese-flagged vessel operated by the Beirut-based Diana K. Shipping Co. and was sold in August 2001 to Ali Mohammed Abbas for $400,000. The ship was then re-registered in Tonga as the Karine A. Although a Lebanese Transport Ministry official has disputed the Lloyd's report, it lends credence to the Palestinian denials and countercharges that Israel manipulated the seizure to derail peace talks." Let's see....we got a ship owned by an Iraqi national, Lebanese-flagged, registered in Beiruit and then registered in Tonga. TONGA? And this is supposed to " lends credence to the Palestinian denials and countercharges that Israel manipulated the seizure to derail peace talks." " Rather than validating Israel's claims of Palestinian duplicity, the incident has damaged Israel's credibility." According to who? This is a flat out claim, with no substantiation. " Audiences in the West, especially in Europe and the United States, are now more likely to question other Israeli charges against the Palestinians." Audiences? This is like "informed observers" which is a substitute for "a little voice inside my head." What other "charges?" Perhaps there will be the questioning if Israeli agents aren't pretending to be terrorists and blowing up Jews in terrorist bombing. "American and European distrust of Israeli allegations will give the Palestinian Authority more room to maneuver in the short term." According to whom? "PA leader Yasser Arafat can continue to argue that he wants peace and to cite Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's aggressive policies as the root cause of continuing violence in the Middle East." Here we are with the delicious "root cause." The perfect excuse to avoid confronting the reality -- which, at best, is mixed. "Israel had hoped to achieve a double whammy with the ship seizure. First, it sought to throw a wrench into peace talks. It aimed to ensure that the United States would not push Israel into negotiating a truce at a time when it has the upper hand with Arafat. Implicating Iran would advance yet another goal -- containment of the emerging Persian Gulf power. Immediately after announcing the capture of the vessel, Israel called on the European Union to declare Iran a state sponsor of terrorism. The United States already does so." Of course! As if Israel is the only government that seeks to take advantage of a situation which places an enemy at a distinct advantage, "But the seizure of the Karine A instead has mushroomed into a full-scale embarrassment for Israel." Full-scale? Irrefutable? Like an FBI agent being caught as a Soviet/Russian spy." "Several details undermine claims that the Palestinian Authority was directly involved in the purchase and smuggling of weapons. For example, the timing of the seizure provided a convenient means of thwarting progress toward peace talks during a four-day visit by U.S. envoy Anthony Zinni." Several details? We are provided with only one, "for example, the timing..." (We never do find out how did the Israeli's management to time the ships sailing to Zinni's visit. Did the Israeli's control the timing of the visit?) One example does not make "several." After more nonsense the article concludes: "Israel's credibility has taken a blow, giving the Palestinians leverage in the short term." What is the evidence that anyone in the non-Muslin world is taking this seriously. Yes, the likelihood is that a significant portion of the extremist Muslin world will buy into this -- but it most certainly does not give the Palestinians any "leverage" except in their dreams and fantasies. "Now the Palestinian Authority can ask Europe and the United States to pressure Sharon to come to the negotiating table. More important, few will take future Israeli claims about Palestinian." Few? For example, what nations have reversed their Israel-Palestine policy as a result of the arms shipment? What nations have even indicated they are considering revising their policy? The piece came to me (and the list) without additional citation, but as you sat, with a route apparently involving "STRATFOR. I think it likely that it came from one of the Palestinian news agencies - but I don't know." Here again, I'd like some more insight. How sound is STRATFOR intelligence briefings? For example, iDefense was often cited as a source about hackers. All their information was either false, exaggerated, or filed as an "exclusive" when it had already appeared in other places. Not unexpectedly, iDense went bankrupt. STRATFOR claims to be "the (sic) leading provider of global intelligence." Really? Says who. They mention Time magazine and "Brill's Content" as among those who extol their excellence." Time is notorious for not being able to tell a straight story and Brill's Content went out of business, they were so bad. STRATFOR can make it claims -- but I can tell you it's no RAND (even though the uses all caps for their name.) A review of their product places them more and more in the iDefense category as compared to RAND (or the old Hudson Institute when Herman ran it.) "A variety of journalists and editors also serve on the [STRATFOR]staff," its web site states. Which ones? It doesn't say. The Sierra Times.com calls itself "an Internet publications for real Americans." and it runs STRATFOR stuff Well, I don't need the Texas-based Sierra Times to define for me what is or is not "a real American." I really like being on your list. I just want to urge more sourcing. Thanks...all my best Lew At 05:52 AM 1/9/2002 -0800, you wrote: >It came to me without additional citation, but with a route apparently >involving STRATFOR. I think it likely that it came from one of the >Palestinian news agencies - but I don't know. > >I did think it was an interesting example of attempts at perception >management - or of course it could be true... > >FC > >Per the message sent by Lewis Z. Koch: > > Fred: > > > Could you provide the source for this report...it starts out > > without any "byline." > >... > > >Arms Seizure Backfires, Wounds Israel > > >2120 GMT, 020108 >Summary > >Israeli naval commandos seized a vessel loaded with arms in the Red Sea on >Jan. >4. Israel claims the weapons came from Iran and were bound for the >Palestinian territories. >But the circumstances surrounding the shipment and details that emerged >after its >seizure have raised questions about the entire incident and, more >importantly, about >Israel's credibility. Audiences in Europe and the United States now will >be more >likely to question other Israeli claims concerning Palestinians. > >Analysis > >In a daring nighttime raid on Jan. 4, Israeli commandos seized a vessel in >international >waters of the Red Sea that was carrying 50 tons of weapons, including >Katyusha rockets, >anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, sniper rifles and mortar launchers. >Israeli >government officials said the next morning that the Palestinian Authority >had purchased >the weapons from Iran and was intending to smuggle them into the territories. > >The circumstances surrounding the shipment and details that emerged after >its seizure >have cast doubts on Israel's report of the incident, however. Both the >Palestinian >Authority and Tehran have denied any connection to the Karine A, and a >report in >a prestigious British shipping journal contradicts Israeli allegations >regarding >the vessel's ownership. Rather than validating Israel's claims of >Palestinian duplicity, >the incident has damaged Israel's credibility. Audiences in the West, >especially >in Europe and the United States, are now more likely to question other >Israeli charges >against the Palestinians. > >American and European distrust of Israeli allegations will give the >Palestinian >Authority more room to maneuver in the short term. PA leader Yasser Arafat >can continue >to argue that he wants peace and to cite Israeli Prime Minister Ariel >Sharon's aggressive >policies as the root cause of continuing violence in the Middle East. > >Israel had hoped to achieve a double whammy with the ship seizure. First, >it sought >to throw a wrench into peace talks. It aimed to ensure that the United >States would >not push Israel into negotiating a truce at a time when it has the upper >hand with >Arafat. Implicating Iran would advance yet another goal -- containment of >the emerging >Persian Gulf power. Immediately after announcing the capture of the >vessel, Israel >called on the European Union to declare Iran a state sponsor of terrorism. >The United >States already does so. > >But the seizure of the Karine A instead has mushroomed into a full-scale >embarrassment >for Israel. Several details undermine claims that the Palestinian >Authority was directly >involved in the purchase and smuggling of weapons. For example, the timing >of the >seizure provided a convenient means of thwarting progress toward peace >talks during >a four-day visit by U.S. envoy Anthony Zinni. > >Despite claims to the contrary, Zinni failed to achieve any real steps >toward resuming >peace talks. In fact, Sharon plans to re-evaluate Israel's relations with >the Palestinian >Authority, Haaretz reported Jan. 7. He has pointed to the vessel seizure >to justify >the move and to validate his labeling of Arafat as a terrorist unwilling >to work >toward peace. > >At the same time, logic argues against the idea that the Palestinian >Authority was >involved in the incident: The presence of Palestinian naval officers >aboard the vessel, >including one who later directly fingered two of Arafat's top lieutenants, >limits >plausible deniability. Though the Palestinian Authority does not govern a >state, >it nonetheless must behave as a government -- and governments engaged in >covert or >illegal operations usually act in a manner that allows plausible >deniability. It >would be either extremely stupid or sheerly lunatic for the Palestinians >to think >that a weapons-laden ship might transit the Red Sea and the Suez Canal >undetected >at a time when both are under heightened surveillance. > >Furthermore, there are contradictory reports about the vessel's ownership. >Israel >claims Palestinians owned the ship, but Lloyd's List, a premier shipping >publication >owned by Lloyd's of London, reported Jan.7 that it was owned by an Iraqi >national. >According to Lloyd's, it was a Lebanese-flagged vessel operated by the >Beirut-based >Diana K. Shipping Co. and was sold in August 2001 to Ali Mohammed Abbas >for $400,000. >The ship was then re-registered in Tonga as the Karine A. Although a >Lebanese Transport >Ministry official has disputed the Lloyd's report, it lends credence to >the Palestinian >denials and countercharges that Israel manipulated the seizure to derail >peace talks. > >Ultimately, it matters little whether the Israeli assertions are true. The >many >apparent discrepancies, the illogic of the idea that the Palestinian >Authority would >attempt such an operation and finally the Lloyd's List report have >combined to cast >doubt on the Israeli claims. Even the United States has failed to endorse >Israel's >version of events, The Jerusalem Post reported Jan. 8. > >As far as Israel is concerned, the best thing that can happen now is for >the whole >incident to blow over. Politicians and military leaders are all pointing >fingers >at each other, blaming everyone but themselves for what is seen as a >public relations >debacle. > >The internal debate, however, overlooks the larger issue: Israel's >credibility has >taken a blow, giving the Palestinians leverage in the short term. Now the >Palestinian >Authority can ask Europe and the United States to pressure Sharon to come >to the >negotiating table. More important, few will take future Israeli claims >about Palestinian >arms-smuggling at face value. > >Israel's burden of proof just got a lot heavier. > > >------------------ >http://all.net/ > >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~--> Tiny Wireless Camera under $80! Order Now! FREE VCR Commander! 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