Return-Path: <sentto-279987-5146-1028820919-fc=all.net@returns.groups.yahoo.com> Delivered-To: fc@all.net Received: from 204.181.12.215 [204.181.12.215] by localhost with POP3 (fetchmail-5.7.4) for fc@localhost (single-drop); Thu, 08 Aug 2002 08:38:08 -0700 (PDT) Received: (qmail 24921 invoked by uid 510); 8 Aug 2002 15:34:02 -0000 Received: from n7.grp.scd.yahoo.com (66.218.66.91) by all.net with SMTP; 8 Aug 2002 15:34:02 -0000 X-eGroups-Return: sentto-279987-5146-1028820919-fc=all.net@returns.groups.yahoo.com Received: from [66.218.66.95] by n7.grp.scd.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 08 Aug 2002 15:35:20 -0000 X-Sender: fastflyer28@yahoo.com X-Apparently-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com Received: (EGP: mail-8_0_7_4); 8 Aug 2002 15:35:19 -0000 Received: (qmail 16166 invoked from network); 8 Aug 2002 15:35:19 -0000 Received: from unknown (66.218.66.216) by m7.grp.scd.yahoo.com with QMQP; 8 Aug 2002 15:35:19 -0000 Received: from unknown (HELO web14502.mail.yahoo.com) (216.136.224.65) by mta1.grp.scd.yahoo.com with SMTP; 8 Aug 2002 15:35:19 -0000 Message-ID: <20020808153518.49028.qmail@web14502.mail.yahoo.com> Received: from [68.100.117.19] by web14502.mail.yahoo.com via HTTP; Thu, 08 Aug 2002 08:35:18 PDT To: iwar@yahoogroups.com, Information Warfare Mailing List <iwar@onelist.com> In-Reply-To: <200208081516.g78FGah17789@red.all.net> From: "e.r." <fastflyer28@yahoo.com> X-Yahoo-Profile: fastflyer28 Mailing-List: list iwar@yahoogroups.com; contact iwar-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list iwar@yahoogroups.com Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:iwar-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com> Date: Thu, 8 Aug 2002 08:35:18 -0700 (PDT) Subject: Re: [iwar] [fc:Taking.Saudi.Out.of.Arabia] /Blinding flash of the obvious Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com Content-Type: text/plain Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-Spam-Status: No, hits=-3.8 required=5.0 tests=IN_REP_TO,FROM_ENDS_IN_NUMS,SUPERLONG_LINE version=2.20 X-Spam-Level: Note: According to direct account from a senior Joint Staff member-Saudi asked us to let them handle their problems alone, well over 3 years ago. While they were quite happy to have us around during the Gulf War, the US had "overstayed it's welcome during Clinton2. Unfortunatly, such a bad relationship existed between the JCS and OSD/White House, no one was listening. While the uniformed military thought the present Administration would a positive force for the uniformed military, that simply has not been the case. To a degreee, we have been nicely PNG'ed and the Bush Crew wonders why???....... The account by Rand has merit, but inner circle politics has really won the day Fred Cohen wrote:Laurent Murawiec's 24-slide presentation to the Defense Policy Board was obtained by Slate and is presented here in type-treatment that approximates the original. Taking Saudi Out of Arabia Laurent Murawiec RAND Defense Policy Board July 10, 2002 1 Taking Saudi out of Arabia: Contents * The Arab Crisis * "Saudi" Arabia * Strategies 2 The Arab Crisis 3 The systemic crisis of the Arab World * The Arab world has been in a systemic crisis for the last 200 years * It missed out on the industrial revolution, it is missing out on the digital revolution * Lack of inner resources to cope with modern world 4 Shattered Arab self-esteem * Shattered self-esteem * Could God be wrong? * Turn the rage against those who contradict God: the West, object of hatred * A whole generation of violently anti-Western, anti-American, anti-modern shock-troops 5 What has the Arab world produced? * Since independence, wars have been the principal output of the Arab world * Demographic and economic problems made intractable by failure to establish stable polities aiming at prosperity * All Arab states are either failing states or threatened to fail 6 The Crisis of the Arab world reaches a climax * The tension between the Arab world and the modern world has reached a climax * The Arab world's home-made problems overwhelm its ability to cope * The crisis is consequently being exported to the rest of the world 7 How does change occur in the Arab world? * There is no agora, no public space for debating ideas, interests, policies * The tribal group in power blocks all avenues of change, represses all advocates of change * Plot, riot, murder, coup are the only available means to bring about political change 8 The continuation of politics by other means? * In the Arab world, violence is not a continuation of politics by other means -- violence is politics, politics is violence * This culture of violence is the prime enabler of terrorism * Terror as an accepted, legitimate means of carrying out politics, has been incubated for 30 years ... 9 The crisis cannot be contained to the Arab world alone * The crisis has irreversibly spilled out of the region * 9/11 was a symptom of the "overflow" * The paroxysm is liable to last for several decades * U.S. response will decisively influence the duration and outcome 10 "Saudi" Arabia 11 The old partnership * Once upon a time, there was a partnership between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia * Partnerships, like alliances, are embodied in practices, ideas, policies, institutions, people -- which persist after the alliance has died 12 "Saudi" Arabia * An instable group: Since 1745, 58% of all rulers of the House of Saud have met a violent demise * Wahhabism loathes modernity, capitalism, human rights, religious freedom, democracy, republics, an open society -- and practices the very opposite * As long as enmity had no or little consequences outside the kingdom, the bargain between the House of Saud and the U.S. held 13 Means, motive, opportunity * 1973: Saudi Arabia unleashes the Oil Shock, absorbs immense flows of resources -- means * 1978: Khomeiny challenges the Saudis' Islamic credentials, provoking a radicalization and world-wide spread of Wahhabism in response -- motive * 1979-1989: the anti-Soviet Jihad gives life and strength to the Wahhabi putsch within Sunni Islam -- opportunity. The Taliban are the result 14 The impact on Saudi policy * Wahhabism moves from Islam's lunatic fringe to center-stage -- its mission now extends world-wide * Saudis launch a putsch within Sunni Islam * Shift from pragmatic oil policy to promotion of radical Islam * Establish Saudi as "the indispensable State" -- treasurers of radical, fundamentalist, terrorist groups 15 Saudis see themselves * God placed the oil in the kingdom as a sign of divine approval * Spread Wahhabism everywhere, but keep the power of the al-Saud undiminished * Survive by creating a Wahhabi-friendly environment -- fundamentalist regimes -- throughout the Moslem world and beyond 16 The House of Saud today * Saudi Arabia is central to the self-destruction of the Arab world and the chief vector of the Arab crisis and its outwardly-directed aggression * The Saudis are active at every level of the terror chain, from planners to financiers, from cadre to foot-soldier, from ideologist to cheerleader * Saudi Arabia supports our enemies and attacks our allies * A daily outpouring of virulent hatred against the U.S. from Saudi media, "educational" institutions, clerics, officials -- Saudis tell us one thing in private, do the contrary in reality 17 Strategies 18 What is to be done? * During and after World War I, Britain's India Office backed the House of Saud; the Foreign Office backed the Hashemites. The India Office won * But the entire post-1917 Middle East settlement designed by the British to replace the Ottoman Empire is fraying * The role assigned to the House of Saud in that arrangement has become obsolete -- and nefarious 19 "Saudi Arabia" is not a God- given entity * The House of Saud was given dominion over Arabia in 1922 by the British * It wrested the Guardianship of the Holy Places -- Mecca and Medina -- from the Hashemite dynasty * There is an "Arabia," but it needs not be "Saudi" 20 An ultimatum to the House of Saud * Stop any funding and support for any fundamentalist madrasa, mosque, ulama, predicator anywhere in the world * Stop all anti-U.S., anti-Israeli, anti-Western predication, writings, etc., within Arabia * Dismantle, ban all the kingdom's "Islamic charities," confiscate their assets * Prosecute or isolate those involved in the terror chain, including in the Saudi intelligence services 21 Or else ... * What the House of Saud holds dear can be targeted: ‹Oil: the old fields are defended by U.S. forces, and located in a mostly Shiite area ‹Money: the Kingdom is in dire financial straits, its valuable assets invested in dollars, largely in the U.S. ‹The Holy Places: let it be known that alternatives are being canvassed 22 Other Arabs? * The Saudis are hated throughout the Arab world: lazy, overbearing, dishonest, corrupt * If truly moderate regimes arise, the Wahhabi-Saudi nexus is pushed back into its extremist corner * The Hashemites have greater legitimacy as Guardians of Mecca and Medina 23 Grand strategy for the Middle East € Iraq is the tactical pivot € Saudi Arabia the strategic pivot € Egypt the prize 24 ------------------ http://all.net/ Your use of Yahoo! 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This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : 2002-10-01 06:44:32 PDT