[iwar] [fc:Arab.Anger.Limits.US.Battle.Strategy]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2002-08-14 06:50:15
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From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
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Date: Wed, 14 Aug 2002 06:50:15 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [iwar] [fc:Arab.Anger.Limits.US.Battle.Strategy]
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Christian Science Monitor
August 14, 2002
Arab Anger Limits US Battle Strategy
Arab allies - including Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia - are increasingly
critical of US plans for attacking Iraq.
By Philip Smucker, Special to The Christian Science Monitor 
CAIRO - Arab opposition to a US-led overthrow of Saddam Hussein is growing
so significantly that it may change the shape of potential US plans to
launch an attack against Iraq, Western and Middle Eastern analysts say.
The idea is so generally abhorrent to leaders and civilians in the region
that the US government will be pressed to sell the operation - which is
still on the drawing boards - not as a US-led operation, but as an Iraqi
opposition-led assault, the observers say.
Rather than fight the tide of Arab resistance to the idea of an invasion of
Iraq, US political and military planners are already trying to work around
it, say Western analysts.
"It would be a poor US military planner" who would be unprepared for a lack
of support from Iraq's neighbors, says Dr. Gary Sick, the director of
Columbia University's Mideast Institute. "That is why the US military will
likely have at least five massive aircraft carriers in the region if and
when it decides to attack," he says.
Mr. Sick says, however, that negative Arab opinions toward a US effort to
overthrow Saddam Hussein are in a state of flux and could still harden or
soften depending on how adept the Bush administration is at selling the
idea.
Charles Heyman, editor of Jane's World Armies in London, says that
compensating for a lack of Arab backing would likely involve the use of
mobile US Marine units already stationed on US aircraft carriers in the Gulf
to help seize the Iraqi port of Basra and use the two airports in that
region to launch further attacks from within Iraq.
Since the invasion of Afghanistan, the US military has built up a
substantial flotilla - including an armed forces contingent of some 50,000
soldiers in the area of the Arabian Peninsula, Iraq, the northern Red Sea,
the Horn of Africa and Central Asia, according to Lt. Commander Matthew Klee
with US Central Command in Florida.
Lieutenant Klee says that the US military did not discuss specifics about
the number of heavy aircraft carriers, but Western defense analysts say they
believe there are already five in the same area.
Military analysts suggest that marketing any attack as an effort by the
Iraqi opposition is critical for winning regional support. This weekend, US
officials including Vice President Dick Cheney met in Washington with
representatives of six Iraqi opposition groups.
But support of Arab states for a new US assault on Iraq is far from assured.
By contrast, Middle Eastern allies proved reliable for President George Bush
Sr. during the last Gulf War in 1991. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Kuwait were
all used as a launching pad for the assault which forced the Iraqi army to
retreat.
A changed Arab world 
But in today's Arab world, even so-called moderate Arab states are not yet
on board for a second war against Iraq. Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar still host
US forces and haven't categorically opposed a US attack on Iraq, but other
Mideast states have been more outspoken. Indeed, there has been a
groundswell of resistance to the idea In Saudi Arabia, where the kingdom's
senior envoys have said that they will not allow Washington to use their
soil to conduct similar military operations. Egypt and Syria have also
expressed opposition to the targeting of Iraq.
Jordan and Yemen, both of whom sided with Iraq at the start of the war in
1991, are equally vociferous this time around in their disdain for the idea.
Palestinian problem persists 
Nabil Osman, a senior adviser to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, insists
that a US-led attack against Iraq could plunge the entire region into chaos
and provide what he calls "ammunition to terrorists."
"The ongoing violence in Palestine and Israel has created one big headline
in the region: It reads: 'Injustice!' and Washington should not ignore
that," he says. "If the US wants to safeguard its own interests it must
address these tensions first - especially if it wants to be seen as an
honest peace broker in the region."
Typical of the fears being expressed in the predominantly
government-controlled Arab media are the words of Salama a Salama, a
commentator for the Al Ahram newspaper in Cairo.
He writes in this week's edition that "there can be little doubt that Bush's
war on Iraq is only the first stage of a dark era of American intervention
in Arab affairs, tailor-made by the Pentagon and the CIA to suit Israeli
interests and undertaken on the pretext of democratic reform of autocratic
regimes."
Mixed feelings on the street 
Arab citizens, interviewed in the steamy streets of Cairo, invariably link
their opposition to a US-led "regime change" in Iraq to their concerns in
Palestine. "The US had no right to invade Iraq and try to further divide the
Arab world's opinion over Palestine," says a Saudi businessman, Mohamed
Addur Rehman.
Yet like many of his fellow Arab citizens, Mr. Rehman does not oppose a
regime change from within. "If the US wants this, I refuse it, but if the
Iraqis want this, I do support a change."
Jane's Charles Heyman believes that Washington - increasingly aware of the
opposition to its moves - will not dare to ask for much more than a "nod and
a wink" from allies if and when it moves ahead with its plans for a "regime
change" in Iraq.
"Right now, it has to be said that there is an enormous amount of hot air
opposing the regime change," he says. "At the heart of this is the conflict
in Israel and Palestine. It is a real cancer. Everyone's evening news is
full of Palestinians being shot by Israeli soldiers and dragged away. 
"Just as there is growing sympathy for Palestinian victims, there is a
strengthening empathy for the 'little guy' in downtown Baghdad, whom many
Arabs expect could be the victim of an assault on Iraq. As long as it
continues the US will probably never get moderate Arab world support for an
invasion of Iraq."
In any case, the final plan of attack and the marketing of that plan is seen
as a key by analysts to Washington's aims in Baghdad.
"No smoking gun has been presented yet - but there is a strong sense that
George W. Bush is already moving ahead with this," says a senior European
diplomat in Cairo.
Sick thinks, however, that the US government has already begun to couch the
"regime change" in terms of an Iraqi-led assault."Even the Saudis are quick
to point out that they have no love for Saddam Hussein," he says. "That is
what we are seeing going on right now with the overtures made towards the
Iraqi opposition and support for their activities. If these forces organize
themselves and then the US lends its support, the Arab world reaction could
be quite different towards an invasion."
If this approach works, it could well prevent a backlash in the Arab world,
he adds.
"There is the planning, the assault and then there is the day after," he
says. "In my view, the day after is more problematic than overthrowing
Saddam. If it is perceived in the Middle East that US has gone in
unilaterally and killed however many Arab civilians, the repercussions could
be severe."

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