[iwar] [fc:America.is.Dangerously.Vulnerable.to.Panic.in.Terror.Attack,.Experts.Say]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2002-08-24 08:02:28
Next message: Fred Cohen: "[iwar] [fc:Coup.De.Crawford]"
Previous message: Fred Cohen: "[iwar] [fc:As.Threat.of.Cyber.Attacks.Grows,.Security.Specialists.Blame.Faulty.Software]"
Messages sorted by: [ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]
Message-Id: <200208241502.g7OF2Su08295@red.all.net>
To: iwar@onelist.com (Information Warfare Mailing List)
Organization: I'm not allowed to say
From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
Mailing-List: list iwar@yahoogroups.com; contact iwar-owner@yahoogroups.com
Precedence: bulk
Date: Sat, 24 Aug 2002 08:02:28 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [iwar] [fc:America.is.Dangerously.Vulnerable.to.Panic.in.Terror.Attack,.Experts.Say]
Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

America is Dangerously Vulnerable to Panic in Terror Attack, Experts Say

By David Wood, Newhouse News Service, 8/21/2002
<a href="http://www.newhouse.com/archive/story1a082102.html">http://www.newhouse.com/archive/story1a082102.html>

For a year the focus of the war on terrorism has been on tightening
borders, coordinating intelligence and protecting buildings, but little
has been done about thwarting a more chilling terrorist goal: collapsing
American society.

Specialists who have studied chaos and panic say America is dangerously
vulnerable.

"I am worried about terrorism causing the collapse of civil society,"
said David McIntyre, a terrorism expert and former dean of the National
War College. "There are things we can do" to prevent such an outcome, he
said. But so far, "I don't think we are doing enough."

Clark L. Staten, executive director of the Emergency Response and
Research Institute in Chicago and a Pentagon consultant on disaster
preparedness, agreed.

"The psychogenic aspect of this -- panic, if you will -- has been given
short shrift by planners," he said. "And yet it is at the root of what
terrorism is all about."

To be sure, the horrifying events of 9/11 caused little panic. On the
contrary, the twin attacks on New York and Washington pulled the nation
together. Defiant American flags blossomed. Thousands volunteered.

The ensuing anthrax scare was a harder test because there was little
public information and authorities argued over what was happening and
what should be done. But again, there was no widespread panic.

Imagine instead a prolonged series of attacks, gut-wrenching in their
relentless progression. How long would it take for the concept of
collective solidarity to disintegrate?

"We feel like Americans. Could that unravel? We've had one incident,"
McIntyre said. "Suppose we had 20 -- or 200?"

Envision small bomb explosions, say, in Hartford, Akron, Green Bay,
Baton Rouge, Tucson, Bakersfield. The government seems powerless to
prevent them, and while authorities assure people they are safe,
wildfire rumors have the explosions spreading radioactive and maybe even
germ-infected debris. People start avoiding shopping centers, ponder
keeping the kids home from school.

Amid rising tensions come real outbreaks of disease, smallpox or perhaps
a virulent form of measles or even West Nile virus. The Internet
accelerates rumors. Hospitals are overwhelmed by patients with real or
imagined symptoms. Police barricade city and state borders. Armed guards
patrol quarantine lines that may divide neighborhoods and even families.
Supermarkets run low on food. Authorities plead for calm as violence and
looting break out. Highways clog as people try to flee.

In this kind of arena, government officials at every level would
struggle against humans' oldest survival mechanism, the cascade of
powerful hormones that stimulate the body to action and appear to shut
down reason and long-term planning.

"The authorities are up against several million years of evolution,"
said Gil Reyes, a psychologist at the University of South Dakota's
Disaster Mental Health Institute. "People will follow instructions just
so long as everybody else does, too.

"But when there's panic at a rock concert or a British soccer match and
people are getting trampled, nobody's listening to the guy on the
loudspeaker saying, `Stop!"' Reyes said.

"So prevention is the key."

Analysts have found that two critical actions can help prevent public
panic: giving people fast and credible information, and giving people
something to do, allowing them even an illusion of control.

During the April 1999 shootings at Columbine High School, for instance,
parents were told: Your kids are OK and are under the protection of the
sheriff's department. Here is a phone number for you to call to check.

On a national level, the federal government's ability to provide fast,
accurate and credible information is in doubt, experts say. Past
experience suggests there will be arguments over jurisdiction and
disagreements about who should provide the single, accurate,
authoritative voice.

What to say in a crisis remains the subject of a struggle within the
government, according to disaster planners who asked not to be
identified. Officials with a counterterrorism background argue for
withholding information that could possibly be of use to terrorists,
while those who come from a disaster relief background argue for the
fullest possible disclosure to help calm the public.

All these problems were on view during the anthrax scare last fall, when
local and federal officials vied for attention and sometimes issued
conflicting information.

"We were not prepared for the anthrax bioattack and the fear generated
by it far outweighed the health threat," said C. Everett Koop, who was
U.S. surgeon general from 1981 to 1989.

As for communicating quickly and believably to the public, Koop said, "I
would not give the government high marks."

Coordination problems still bedevil emergency planning. In July, the
White House scripted an evacuation plan for the nation's capital. Yet
there was no public announcement and even the District of Columbia's
Emergency Management Agency was unaware of the plan's details. Officials
at the two White House offices involved, the Office of Personnel
Management and the Department of Homeland Security, each referred this
reporter's inquiries to the other.

And yet there is an intense need for accurate public information to
forestall widespread, blind panic. How many Americans, for instance,
know the evacuation routes from their cities or towns? Clogged local
roads can hamper emergency vehicles, triggering even more panic.

How many people are familiar with crude but effective decontamination
techniques in event of a chemical or biological attack?

In the event that authorities do order an evacuation (or, conversely,
ask that people stay home), how many Americans -- especially elderly and
shut-ins -- belong to phone trees or groups that can make sure they get
the word?

The Bush administration, recognizing that effective organization is a
local responsibility, has tried to stimulate the formation of
neighborhood watch and disaster response organizations. In July the
administration released $10.3 million in grants to help local
organizations recruit and train volunteers.

But so far only 75 groups have enlisted in the Citizen Corps that Bush
established in January to help local communities deal with terrorism.

Most of these groups already had deep roots in their communities and
seem like effective barriers against panic.

In Ponca City, Okla., where a major oil refinery fuels an underlying
public anxiety about man-made disaster and terrorism, the police force
of 56 officers is reinforced by 20 trained and experienced volunteers,
and has 10 more about to undergo the 24 weeks of training.

"These are retirees, a stockbroker, a couple of nurses, who work crowd
control and have an extremely quieting effect because they are known,"
said Lt. Dale Henshaw, a patrol supervisor. "When they have to get
people to move, it's `Hey, Larry, we need you to move back.' It's very
effective."

In Port Deposit, Md., just downstream from the Peach Bottom nuclear
power plant, a church group has organized a search and rescue team of 21
volunteers. Training for Nehemiah's Watchmen came from the federally
funded Community Emergency Response Team program.

"It's been hard to keep people motivated" through the long hours of
training, said Jill Lee of the Pleasant View Baptist Church. "But if
there were a crisis, people would be there."

She acknowledged that their training would help fend off panic.

"Panic is a natural reaction, but the more training you get like this,
if something were to happen you would go into the mind-set you've
trained for," she said.

"A lot of older folks, they kind of depend on the government to take
care of them. But that's not going to be the case. We have to take care
of ourselves."

------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
4 DVDs Free +s&p Join Now
http://us.click.yahoo.com/pt6YBB/NXiEAA/mG3HAA/kgFolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->

------------------
http://all.net/ 

Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Next message: Fred Cohen: "[iwar] [fc:Coup.De.Crawford]"
Previous message: Fred Cohen: "[iwar] [fc:As.Threat.of.Cyber.Attacks.Grows,.Security.Specialists.Blame.Faulty.Software]"
Messages sorted by: [ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : 2002-10-01 06:44:32 PDT