[iwar] [fc:Military.experts.say.there's.no.evidence.Saddam.is.close.to.having.a.weapon]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2002-08-28 06:40:09

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From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
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Date: Wed, 28 Aug 2002 06:40:09 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [iwar] [fc:Military.experts.say.there's.no.evidence.Saddam.is.close.to.having.a.weapon]
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Assessing Iraq's nuclear progress
Military experts say there's no evidence Saddam is close to having a weapon

By Jim Miklaszewski
NBC NEWS

WASHINGTON, Aug. 27 -   Military officials have told NBC News that there is no evidence 
that Iraq has produced or obtained any nuclear fuel, clashing with the Bush administration's 
official statements that Saddam Hussein is close to developing a nuclear weapon.

      THE UNITED STATES said during the Persian Gulf War that it had crippled President 
Saddam Hussein's drive to come up with nuclear weapons. Eleven years later, the Bush 
administration is claiming that Iraq is getting close again as Washington debates 
whether U.S. forces should launch a military attack to oust Saddam.
       When U.N. weapons inspectors left Iraq four years ago, they concluded that 
Saddam had the design and the ability to build a nuclear bomb but lacked the critical 
component: weapons-grade uranium or plutonium. Experts estimate that with the proper 
fuel, he could build a bomb within a year. 
       But so far, U.S. agencies have developed no intelligence that he has produced 
or obtained the proper fissile material, knowledgeable observers said.
       "Vice President [Dick] Cheney would say: 'Why wait? Let's go now while we 
are still sure he doesn't have a bomb,'" said Michael O'Hanlon, a defense budget 
and technology specialist at the Brookings Institution and author of "Defense Policy 
Choices for the Bush Administration, 2001-2005." 

       "But there's a real chance that Saddam's progress toward a bomb is very, 
very slow, and he may actually never get one," said O'Hanlon, who has criticized 
President Bush's defense spending priorities in congressional testimony this year. 


 THREAT OF ALTERNATIVE WEAPONS
       The bigger threat, experts say, is Saddam's chemical or biological weapon 
stockpiles. U.N. weapons inspectors estimate that Saddam has produced 32,000 gallons 
of biological agents, including nearly 7,000 gallons of so-called weapons-grade anthrax, 
and is working on weaponizing smallpox. 

    Chemical weapons are said to include up to 100 tons of the deadly nerve gas 
VX, and it is estimated that Iraq still has 12 to 20 Scud missiles left over from 
the Gulf War with which to deliver it. Still, some experts question whether there 
is any evidence that Iraq ever intends to use those weapons of mass destruction.
       "I think before you resort to pre-emptive attack, you must have very good 
intelligence, and you must have intelligence that shows that an attack against the 
United States is quite imminent," said William Cohen, defense secretary during the 
Clinton administration, who said he believed Saddam posed no greater threat today 
than he had before. 

        U.S. officials fear however, that even if Saddam does not use the deadly 
weapons, he could give them to terrorists, such as Osama bin Laden, whose al-Qaida 
terrorist network is believed to have been responsible for the Sept. 11 terrorist 
attacks in New York and Washington. 

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