[Cohen99] F. Cohen, Simulating Cyber Attacks, Defenses, and Consequences, Computers and Security, 1999. [We begin by discussing limitations on modeling and simulation that are relatively unique to information protection, discuss the model we chose, and how simulation works. Next we show results of individual simulations and runs of a few thousand simulations that characterize small portions of the design space for attacks alone and then attacks in the presence of defenses. We continue with issues of parallel simulation and demonstrate results from large-scale simulation runs involving scores of parallel processors covering millions of runs and varying several parameters of interest. Results are given for the effects of detection and reaction time on success rates, the effects of defender strength on success rate, non-linearities between strength and time and the effectiveness of a defense, and differences between results for varying threat profiles. We then add issues of costs and produce expected loss and cost results, discuss and demonstrate the effects of strategies on results, review limitations of metrics and sensitivity to variations in parameters, and briefly discuss validation of results.]

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