[iwar] [fc:Somalis.'Welcome'.U.S..Attack]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2002-01-02 07:03:24
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From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
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USA Today
December 31, 2001
Somalis 'Welcome' U.S. Attack
By Thor Valdmanis, USA Today
MOGADISHU, Somalia -- For many people in this bombed-out capital, the United
States can't bring its war on terrorism to their country soon enough.
''Tell Rumsfeld I'm happy the Americans are coming,'' says Sabri Mohammed,
16, referring to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Mohammed manages an
electronics shop where cartons of Chinese stereos and Japanese televisions
are stacked to the ceiling. He says he hopes U.S. forces can bring peace and
stability to his country: ''We need a rest from the tribal fighting.''
Even local warlords, the men responsible for destroying a U.S.-led
peacekeeping effort here eight years ago, say they want to see the United
States attack terrorist sites in Somalia.
''Americans should not worry about something like 1993 happening again,''
says Mohammed Kanyare Afrah, a wealthy businessman who controls 4,000
fighters and large areas of the capital and countryside. ''We've had enough.
We want to help'' in the war on terrorism.
That's the mood of many in Mogadishu. Known in happier times as the Pearl of
Africa, this city is now a lawless, dangerous place that makes shattered
Kabul, Afghanistan, look orderly in comparison.
Four warring factions claim control of the city. Their drug-addled
militiamen patrol in pickups fitted with anti-aircraft guns. Firefights
regularly erupt, fueled by half a million guns in a city of 2 million
destitute people. Civil war has reduced most of the buildings to piles of
rubble. There hasn't been an effective central government in Somalia since
1991. Dozens of warlords and local heavyweights have divided up the
countryside.
Not surprisingly, this failed city and nation, with a labyrinth of feuding
clans and subclans, have become a prime hideaway for terrorists. U.S.
investigators say, and court testimony has shown, that Somalia was the
launching pad for the bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in
1998. The bombings are believed to have been orchestrated by Osama bin Laden
and his al-Qaeda terrorist network.
Now the United States has to decide what to do about Somalia. Rumsfeld and
other top Pentagon officials say there's been no firm decision on whether
this place will be the next target for U.S. forces. But the ominous presence
in recent weeks of several U.S. warships just off the coast in the Indian
Ocean seems to be a clear signal that Somalia's turn could come soon.
Militant group
If targets are attacked in Somalia, likely to be hit first is a militant
group called al-Itihaad al-Islamiya, or Islamic Unity. U.S. officials say
the group has strong links to bin Laden and the embassy bombings.
Al-Itihaad was born out of an Islamic student movement at Mogadishu
University in the late 1980s. After a series of humiliating military defeats
over the past three years, al-Itihaad no longer controls any territory. It
now works more subtly, recruiting at educational institutions and
penetrating the judiciary and businesses, often with the financial support
of Arab donors in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, U.S. officials say.
Members of Somalia's nascent Transitional National Government say there are
no links between bin Laden and al-Itihaad. The TNG, formed in August 2000 at
a conference in neighboring Djibouti, says al-Itihaad's leaders have fled to
Saudi Arabia, Syria and the United Arab Emirates.
The warlords in northern and central Somalia say they, too, have no
connections to al-Itihaad. They say the group gets assistance only from
warlords in the south, who in turn get support from the government of
neighboring Ethiopia.
The United States has been wary of Somalia since it ended its most recent
mission there in the early 1990s. America led efforts to bring humanitarian
aid here, and it sent troops to prevent food and medical shipments from
being looted by the roaming gangs.
That relief effort ended after U.S. Army Rangers were attacked while on a
raid in Mogadishu in October 1993. The fight left 18 commandos dead. But the
Americans killed hundreds of their attackers and accomplished the goal of
their raid: the capture of 19 supporters of warlord Mohamed Farrah Aidid.
Memories of that experience -- dramatized in the movie Black Hawk Down --
are likely one reason U.S. planners aim to limit the extent of any military
campaign in Somalia.
The United States is also under pressure from Arab leaders, United Nations
Secretary-General Kofi Annan and some European allies. Those parties have
expressed reservations about expanding the military campaign to Somalia,
Sudan, Iraq, Indonesia, the Philippines or other countries where
international terrorists are thought to be operating. They worry about
civilian casualties and stirring further unrest among militant Muslim
groups.
Many Somalis, however, say they do hope that the Americans come here soon,
take aggressive action and stay for a while to lend humanitarian aid and
support. They warn that a quick attack and then withdrawal could just make
conditions here worse -- creating an environment that produces more
terrorists bent on attacking the West.
Critics of U.S. foreign policy say that's what happened in Afghanistan: In
the 1980s, the United States poured weapons and aid into that country to
fight the Soviet Union, but then lost interest after the Soviets withdrew in
1989.
Cash needed
''We need hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars in aid, but the
chances of getting that right now are zero'' because of the danger, says
Abdurahman Ibrahim, a senior adviser to the TNG. But, he says, ''if the
Americans supported us now, they would gain a valuable and loyal friend.''
What some Somali warlords and many citizens say they want is a copy of
what's now happening in Afghanistan: military strikes that cripple terrorist
cells, followed by humanitarian aid and assistance with forming a national
government and reducing tensions between rival warlords.
The humanitarian need is urgent. The U.N. says 300,000 Somalis in the
southern part of the country face starvation because of a drought that has
produced the smallest crop harvest in seven years.
Bringing political order to Somalia also is crucial, people here say, but
incredibly difficult. The TNG says it is trying to establish a broad-based,
secular government, modeled on those in Egypt and Jordan. Peace talks aimed
at brokering a power-sharing agreement among the TNG and various warlords
who control different parts of the country were held in Kenya this month.
But the chances of success at any peace talks appear slim. Ethiopia, which
has been at war with Somalia twice in the past four decades, has refused to
allow the warlords it controls in the south to attend the conference.
The TNG and Kenya want the United States to play a more active role in
Somalia's reconstruction while forcing Ethiopia to stop supporting Somali
warlords. Kenya, meanwhile, fears more instability, guns and refugees
spilling over its border from an unstable Somalia.
Somalis also want the Bush administration to agree to the lifting of an
international freeze on assets of al-Barakaat, this country's largest bank.
The United States suspects that al-Barakaat has helped finance al-Qaeda. But
Somalis, whose average annual income is about $600, say they badly need the
$250 million a year that overseas relatives send to family members here via
al-Barakaat.
''What a mess. Can you imagine shutting down Citibank or MCI in the U.S.?
Somalis have been cut off from the rest of the world,'' says al-Barakaat
spokesman Khalif Farah, who left his job and family in Alexandria, Va., a
month ago to advise the company.
Farah says al-Barakaat, whose majority owner is Sheik Ahmed Ali Jimale of
Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, denies any wrongdoing.
City of desperation
The extent of Somalia's problems is obvious.
In this city, most residents live in canvas tents sitting on empty lots or
alongside garbage-strewn streets. Bodies of cats and dogs, most dead of
starvation, litter the roads.
Signs of lawlessness are everywhere. Boys in their early teens cradle guns.
Militia fighters wielding AK-47 rifles speed up and down the streets in
SUVs. They seem to pay no heed to which side of the road they tear down.
Many are glassy-eyed from chewing a local plant called khat, an
amphetamine-like stimulant that counts as one of the country's few thriving
exports. It's popular in Yemen and the Persian Gulf states.
At makeshift roadblocks throughout the city, armed bandits demand ''tolls.''
Local businessmen and government officials must hire small armies of gunmen
for protection.
Last Friday, nine people were killed in fighting between police and militia
here. Three were civilians caught in the crossfire. The firefight was
sparked by a dispute over attempts by police to reorganize a market
controlled by the militia.
''This is a very dangerous time,'' says Col. Ab Abdi Hassan Awale,
Mogadishu's police chief. ''There is no law and order, there is civil war,
there is tribe fighting. Now we may get bombed by the Americans.''
Rumors swirl in the streets that Delta Force and Green Beret commandos have
conducted raids in southern Somalia. Last week, local media warned of an
imminent U.S. invasion. Some residents have left the city in fear of
airstrikes.
But most here say they hope for U.S. intervention. ''We welcome the
Americans,'' says Hasam Abdi Ali, 45, a TNG soldier who has been fighting
for one clan or another for 27 years. ''We need their help.''
There's one quantifiable measure of how certain Somalis are that an attack
is coming: In markets, AK-47s are readily available.
When there's heavy fighting between warlords, the guns are in great demand
and sell for as much as $350. But recently, the price was less than $250.
Many people, sellers say, are convinced that U.S. troops will confiscate all
weapons. So there's no point buying any right now.
''AK-47s are cheaper now, thanks to the Americans,'' says Mohammed Hasan
Gafa, 30, a hotel clerk. But Gafa hasn't been lured into a false sense of
security.
Like many Somali men his age, he owns an AK-47. He never goes out without
it. 

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