[iwar] [fc:Paper:.The.Perception.Management.Process]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2002-03-09 19:33:53


Return-Path: <sentto-279987-4589-1015731172-fc=all.net@returns.groups.yahoo.com>
Delivered-To: fc@all.net
Received: from 204.181.12.215 [204.181.12.215] by localhost with POP3 (fetchmail-5.7.4) for fc@localhost (single-drop); Sat, 09 Mar 2002 19:35:08 -0800 (PST)
Received: (qmail 26840 invoked by uid 510); 10 Mar 2002 03:33:04 -0000
Received: from n16.groups.yahoo.com (216.115.96.66) by all.net with SMTP; 10 Mar 2002 03:33:04 -0000
X-eGroups-Return: sentto-279987-4589-1015731172-fc=all.net@returns.groups.yahoo.com
Received: from [216.115.97.190] by n16.groups.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 10 Mar 2002 03:32:33 -0000
X-Sender: fc@red.all.net
X-Apparently-To: iwar@onelist.com
Received: (EGP: unknown); 10 Mar 2002 03:32:51 -0000
Received: (qmail 44963 invoked from network); 10 Mar 2002 03:32:51 -0000
Received: from unknown (216.115.97.172) by m4.grp.snv.yahoo.com with QMQP; 10 Mar 2002 03:32:51 -0000
Received: from unknown (HELO red.all.net) (12.232.72.152) by mta2.grp.snv.yahoo.com with SMTP; 10 Mar 2002 03:32:50 -0000
Received: (from fc@localhost) by red.all.net (8.11.2/8.11.2) id g2A3Xsk00873 for iwar@onelist.com; Sat, 9 Mar 2002 19:33:54 -0800
Message-Id: <200203100333.g2A3Xsk00873@red.all.net>
To: iwar@onelist.com (Information Warfare Mailing List)
Organization: I'm not allowed to say
X-Mailer: don't even ask
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3]
From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
X-Yahoo-Profile: fcallnet
Mailing-List: list iwar@yahoogroups.com; contact iwar-owner@yahoogroups.com
Delivered-To: mailing list iwar@yahoogroups.com
Precedence: bulk
List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:iwar-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Sat, 9 Mar 2002 19:33:53 -0800 (PST)
Subject: [iwar] [fc:Paper:.The.Perception.Management.Process]
Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit

Perception Management Process
by Lieutenant Colonel Craig S. Jones, US Army, Retired

Since US Army Field Manual (FM) 100-6, Information Operations, has been
published, much has been written and said about information operations
(IO).  Despite IO becoming part of the Army lexicon, much confusion
remains concerning IO and its broad range of diverse disciplines and
activities.  Using information systems (INFOSYS), protecting INFOSYS and
conducting deception all run the IO gamut.  This article focuses on one
aspect of IO‹methodology‹and will offer prospective IO staff officers a
template for planning, implementing and evaluating IOıs perception
management piece.  Hopefully, this article will also be used by those
individuals who work with IO staff officers, so they can better
understand their role. 

This articleıs foundation is based on personal observations of Task
Force (TF) Eagleıs IO cell in Bosnia during December 1997 and the work
done by Lieutenant Colonels Garry Beavers and Stephen Shanahan of the
Land Information Warfare Activity (LIWA).1

Perception management involves all actions that "convey and/or deny
selected information and indicators to foreign audiences to influence
their emotions, motives and objective reasoning; and to intelligence
systems and leaders at all levels to influence official estimates,
ultimately resulting in foreign behaviors and official actions favorable
to the originatorıs objectives.  In various ways, perception management
combines truth projection, operations security [OPSEC] cover and
deception, and psychological operations [PSYOP]."2

In the following scenarios, Joint Task Force (JTF) Falcon has the
mission to conduct peace operations in the former Soviet Republic of
Ubilestan.  The JTFıs IO staff officer, augmented with a team from the
Joint Command and Control Warfare Center, has developed an IO campaign
plan to support the commander in chiefıs (CINCıs) campaign plan.  To
execute the IO campaign planıs objectives, a series of IO programs must
be developed by the subordinate land component command (LCC).  The LCC
commander wants an IO plan that will support the JTFıs IO campaign plan
and assist him in accomplishing his mission to protect lives and
property in case of riots in the multiethnic city of Tajmil.  Municipal
elections will be held in 90 days, and it seems likely that the losing
political party will instigate riots after the election results are
announced.  The 60th Armor Division (AD) forming the LCC for JTF Falcon
is combat ready and has enough firepower to quell any riot.  However,
the commander would prefer to avoid using lethal force.  Thus, he wants
his IO staff officer to develop and execute an IO plan that will assist
his diplomatic efforts in preventing the citizens in and around Tajmil
from rioting. 

IO Organization The 60th ADıs IO cell consists of the divisionıs IO
officer and a three-man field support team (FST) from the LIWA.  The FST
provides expertise in deception and OPSEC, and it has tools for IO
modeling, targeting and synchronization.  Because the IO cell is small
and does not possess the skills of a more robust command and control
warfare (C2W) element, its plans and execution strategy will be
small-scale.  For the division to execute a greater IO capability and
achieve full integration and synchronization, the IO officer uses the
Information Operations Working Group (IOWG).  The IOWGıs composition is
mission contingent.  In this scenario, it comprises representatives from
the IO cell, G3 Plans, G2 Plans, Public Affairs (PA), Civil Affairs
(CA), G6, PSYOP, Electronic Warfare (EW), Staff Judge Advocate,
Political Adviser (POLAD), Special Operations Command and Control
Element (SOCCE), Provost Marshal Office (PMO) and Counterintelligence. 
As facilitator, the IO officer ensures that the talents and creativity
of the individual IOWG members are fully employed in achieving IO
objectives.  The following process provides a template for conducting
IO. 

IO Process The IO process discussed herein is a 12-step method that
forms a template for planning, implementing and evaluating IO.  Although
it is not doctrine, and it differs slightly from the one being used by
the LIWA in Bosnia, it is offered here as a point of reference.  I hope
this article will evoke further discussion and improvements in IO
modeling and measures of effectiveness (MOE), which are currently two
major shortfalls in executing IO.  In fact, Joint Publication (Pub)
3-58, Joint Doctrine for Military Deception, says deception planning is
also true for the IO Process‹"Although diagrams of planning processes
are useful in aiding the understanding of the relationship of the
individual elements of the process, it must be remembered that processes
are seldom as linear as diagrams or flow charts may imply.  Deception
planners must be prepared to respond to the dynamics of the situation
and of their own headquarters."3 The IO cell and IOWG must follow a
12-step method to achieve effective IO:

Analyze the mission.  The IO cell analyzes the mission to determine the
military and political objectives and commanderıs intent.  The IO cell
then collects all available relevant information and intelligence (RII)
and begins to formulate questions that need answering.  The G2 develops
an IO intelligence preparation of the battlefield, and the IO officer
then presents the IO cellıs work to the IOWG.  The other IOWG members
will have analyzed the mission to determine how they can best attain the
commanderıs objectives.  Following the IOWG meetings, team members go
back to their individual work sites to plan and manage their activities. 
It is through the IOWG that the IO officer gains synergy by ensuring
that IO is fully coordinated and synchronized.  For the rest of the IO
process, the reader can assume that the steps are carried out by the
IOWG functioning as a team. 

Seek RII.  The key to effective IO is RII, which is needed to plan,
implement, monitor and evaluate IO.  The G2 representative is the IO
officerıs link to RII.  The IOWG develops requests for intelligence
(RFI), which the G2 cell works.  The G2 representative ensures RFIs are
properly submitted, monitored and answered, to provide necessary
feedback to the IOWG.  While the G2 processes the request, other members
are gathering their own "answers" and sources to collect RII.  PSYOP,
CA, counterintelligence and SOCCE teams in the field will be collecting
RII.  Meanwhile, the IO cell aggressively exploits the unclassified
Internet and various military nets.  Likewise, the POLAD will use all
available diplomatic sources.  The PA officer will provide the IOWG with
information on the media environment surrounding friendly forces. 
Maintenance contact teams, logistic teams, engineers, reconnaissance
elements and infantry and Military Police patrols are exploited for RII. 
The bottom line is that the myriad sources are fully used and RII is
shared within the IOWG. 

Determine IO objectives.  An IO objective is a specific, operational
statement of desired IO program accomplishments.  For each IO objective,
the planner strives to use strong verbs, states only one purpose,
specifies a single end state and specifies the expected time for
achievement.4 It is important to remember that the closer the objectives
are to directly measurable outcomes, the more likely it is that a
competent evaluation will result.  Using our scenario, the IO cell
determines the following: "Within 90 days, dissuade the populace of
Tajmil from rioting." Dissuade is the strong verb.  The IOWG has one
aim‹dissuading the populace from rioting.  Thus, the specified outcome
is no rioting, an outcome that can be easily measured.  This IO
objective becomes the overarching objective for all IOWG members.  Then
they must develop C2W, PA and CA objectives for their respective
elements. 

Determine objectives for each element.  The IO staff officer needs to
know what the C2W, PA and CA objectives are and how they will aid in
achieving the overarching IO objectives.  Although members will come to
the IOWG with objectives already in mind, it is important to go through
a brainstorming process.  Brainstorming fosters team ownership of the
objectives, provides a sanity check and allows members to know one
anotherıs intent, thereby promoting synergy.  Brainstorming ensures that
the IO objectives and each elementıs objectives are clear, distinct and
focused.  More importantly, it forges a strong link allowing members to
better understand the connectivity between the elementsı objectives and
the overarching IO objective. 

In our scenario, one PSYOP objective might be to "inform the target
audience of the ramifications of any rioting." If ramifications include
a military response, it is imperative that the military and diplomatic
agencies are capable and have the resolve to follow through with
military action.  This example illustrates why PSYOP themes must be
approved by higher headquarters.  The objectives and themes for PSYOP,
deception and other C2W pillars will be rolled into the IO program,
which should support the CINCıs IO campaign plan.  One might argue that
inform is not a strong verb, compared with dissuade, but to simply
"inform" is a necessary step toward achieving the IO objective.  It can
also be easily measured. 

The military deception objective might be to "convince the target
audience that certain areas will be heavily patrolled and monitored by
ground and air assets." In reality, the friendly assets may not be
available to conduct the operations as described.  Likewise, EW might
have the objective to "degrade and disrupt the capability of faction
leaders to communicate electronically during a certain period of time."
The "blackout" might be triggered by some event that indicates rioting
is imminent.  We must remember that these objectives must help achieve
the IO objective.  Achieving an individual elementıs objective and not
the IO objective is a failure for the IOWG. 

Identify IO targets.  The IO cell identifies IO targets, consistent with
the commanderıs intent, and presents this list to the IOWG for review. 
IOWG members will recommend additional targets to the IO cell.  Targets
will be quite diversified and could include key communicators, a certain
population segment or a set of radio towers that are being used to
encourage people to riot.  The probability of success is increased if a
target can be attacked by more than one C2W pillar.  Therefore, all IOWG
members should obtain detailed information about the target audience. 

Obtain detailed information about the target audience.  As a minimum,
RII about the target audience should consist of the following:

     Political agendas.

     Biographic information on key political and military figures.

     Decision-making process.

     Demographic information: age, sex, race, religion, economic income,
cultural likes and dislikes.

     The target audienceıs perceptions of friendly capabilities and possible
courses of action (COAs).

     The target audienceıs IO capabilities and processes.

     Estimates of the target audienceıs actions under differing scenarios.

One area needing improvement is IO modeling and simulation.  The
difficulty of quantifying results produced by IO activities has caused
IO modeling to lag behind more conventional force-on-force modeling. 
However, such modeling tools as the Advanced Regional Exploratory
System, Deploy-able Exercise Support System and SPECTRUM show promise. 
As these and other tools are developed, modeling will help the IO staff
officer evaluate various COAs and objectives and estimated the target
audienceıs actions under different scenarios.  PSYOP personnel are
trained in target audience analysis‹the process by which potential
target audiences are identified and analyzed for effectiveness,
accessibility and susceptibility.  This type of analysis prepares the
IOWG for the next step‹developing themes. 

Develop friendly information themes.  FM 33-1, Psychological Operations,
defines a theme as a subject, topic or line of persuasion used to
achieve a psychological objective.5 Themes to use and avoid will often
be passed down from higher headquarters.  However, themes could also be
developed at the LCC level.  PSYOP personnel have skills, expertise and
experience in developing themes.  But again, as with objectives, themes
should first be discussed within the IOWG for possible improvement and
to ensure that all members are thoroughly familiar with them.  In our
scenario, possible themes are:

     "Peaceful protest is the appropriate way to communicate your desire
for political change."

     "Violence will be met with force in order to protect lives and
property."

     "Rioting will delay, and possibly stop, the rebuilding of roads and
homes and the inflow of economic aid."

It is important to remember that the themes are not necessarily "PSYOP"
themes.  Providing the right piece of information to the right audience
to reinforce or create perceptions or to cause ambiguity is the goal. 
However, thinking in terms of themes allows the IOWG to develop,
identify and create the "right piece" of information. 

Identify pressure points.  A pressure point is an important, essential
or primary factor that can be influenced to control behavior.  As with
objectives and themes, the IO officer should facilitate an IOWG
discussion to identify pressure points and the best ways to exploit
them.  In our scenario, the people of Tajmil desperately need economic
aid.  Therefore, aid is a pressure point.  It will be made clear to
Tajmilıs citizens that the delivery of aid will depend on whether or not
the political leaders support democracy. 

Develop Measures of Effectiveness (MOE).  In my opinion, developing IO
MOE is the most difficult step in the IO process.  Without MOE, the IOWG
will not be able to evaluate IO program effectiveness.  A commander has
the right and the responsibility to ask his IO staff officer this simple
question: "How do we know this IO stuff is helping me achieve my overall
objectives?"

Thus, the IOWG must build MOE into the IO plan so that the following
three critical factors can be measured:

     Effectiveness‹the relationship between outputs and objectives. 
Were the IO objectives achieved? If not, why not?

      Efficiency‹the relationship between inputs and outputs.  Although
the IO program might have been effective, could there have been better
ways to do it quicker and cheaper?

      Adaptability‹the IOWGıs ability to respond to changing demands. 
Was there sufficient flexibility to adjust a PSYOP program or deception
plan to react to an unexpected event?

MOE can be classified as either quantitative or qualitative.  In
Utilization-Focused Evaluation, Michael Patton states, "Quantitative
methodology assumes the necessity, desirability and even the possibility
of applying some underlying empirical standard to social phenomena.  By
way of contrast, qualitative methodology assumes that some phenomena are
not amenable to numerical mediation."6 Accordingly, quantitative
research is desirable when:

     A picture of the environment at a given point in time is needed.

     Data that can be projected to a larger universe is needed.

     The target audience is difficult to reach.

     Large amounts of specific information from the target audience is
sought.

     The data must be statistically representative of a very large
geographic area.

On the other hand, qualitative research is desirable when:

     Modifications need to be made to an idea before it is finalized.

     Rapid feedback from the targeted audience is needed.

     The research budget is limited.

     There is a need to probe deeply into the cause of some observed
behavior.7

The point here is that different assessments require different MOE.  The
IOWG should not get locked into thinking that if MOE are not
quantifiable they are of no use. 

Write the IO plan.  With the information obtained so far, the IO cell is
now ready to write the IO plan.  The written document might be formatted
as an IO annex to a concept plan or operations plan.  In addition, the
IO cell uses a series of worksheets, matrices and Gantt charts to record
and display objectives, pressure points, tasks, milestones and
timelines.8

Implement and monitor IO campaign plan.  During this step the plan is
actually executed.  The plan is monitored and feedback begins while RII
collection continues.  A synchronization matrix is used to deconflict
and synchronize IO activity.  The IOWG members continuously use RII, MOE
and other feedback to evaluate their individual activityıs effectiveness
and fine-tune the plan and adjust to unexpected events.  Focus is on
coordinating, adapting and achieving synergy. 

Because IO are mutually supporting, the following components can support
PSYOP deception planning and theme production:

     Creating perceptions that will enhance the deception planıs
believability. 

     Providing RII to IOWG. 

     Informing the populace about the benefits being provided by CA.

     Loud speaker teams helping control the populace during aid
distribution.

     Explaining to the populace why certain groups are not receiving their
perceived "fair share" of aid.

     Conducting counterpropaganda activities and protecting against
misinformation and disinform-ation.

     Producing articles by key communicators that encourage respect for
democracy and rule of law.

In turn, deception can support operations by:

     Disseminating information that reinforces PSYOP themes.

     Creating perceptions that enhance susceptibility to PSYOP themes.

     Reinforcing CA themes in the content of deception information.

     Creating perceptions that support PA desired perceptions.

Likewise, CA supports PSYOP by:

     Providing aid to the host nation (HN), which gives substance to PSYOP
themes.

     Providing RII.

     Providing RII to IOWG.

     Disseminating truthful information that reinforces the deception planıs
believability.

     Providing events that PA can exploit to show the command in a positive
light.

In concert with these other efforts, PA can support ongoing themes and plans
by:

     Providing information that counters adver-saryıs propaganda.

     Providing interviews with commanders who articulate JTFıs reaction to
rioting.

     Producing stories that show the unit is combat ready and prepared to
respond to riots.

     Publicizing financial and humanitarian aid given to HN.

     Providing information on how populace is to receive aid, where and
when, with specific times and locations.

Let me state emphatically that PA and CA do not conduct PSYOP or
deception, nor are these IO components manipulated by the PSYOP and
deception planners.  However, they and the C2W elements, by staying in
their own lanes and providing information that create the desired
perceptions, can achieve synergy and increase the probability of
achieving the IO objectives. 

Evaluate the IO program.  As stated earlier, MOE are built into the plan
to provide the IOWG with an azimuth check, enabling IO planners to adapt
their plans as necessary.  MOE are also used to evaluate the overall IO
programıs effectiveness.  Knowing the effectiveness, the IOWG can decide
whether to continue, modify or end it. 

Developing and implementing IO MOE must be an IOWG team effort.  The
PSYOP elementıs pretesting and post-testing of a product or evaluation
of a PSYOP program needs to be shared with the IOWG.  Other members
could possibly use the feedback to evaluate their own efforts, and this
information is needed by the IO staff officer so he can evaluate the
overall IO program.  Also, resources can be saved if one evaluation
could answer other IOWG membersı questions. 

The challenges facing the IO staff officer are formidable.  Getting the
IOWG to function as a team, obtaining RII and measuring IO effectiveness
are just a few of the hurdles he must overcome.  He needs additional
tools to monitor and evaluate IO on a par with his civilian counterparts
in marketing and political campaigning.  Work continues apace to provide
the IO staff officer with a much-needed, doctrinal-based methodology to
plan and implement future IO.  MR



Notes

1. LTC (Ret) Stephen W. Shanahan and LTC Garry Beavers, US Army,
"Operationalizing IO in Bosnia-Herzegovina," Land Information Warfare
Activity, Fort Belvoir, VA.
2. Joint Publication (Pub) 1-02, Department of Defense Directory of Military
and Associated Terms (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office [GPO],
March 1994), 315.
3. Joint Pub 3-58, Joint Doctrine for Military Deception (Washington, DC:
GPO, May 1996), IV-1.
4. Peter H. Rossi and Howard E. Freeman, Evaluation (Beverly Hills: Sage
Publications 1982), 59.
5. US Army Field Manual (FM) FM 33-1, Psychological Operations (Washington,
DC: GPO, 18 February 1993), Glossary-12.
6. Michael Quinn Patton, Utilization-Focused Evaluation (Beverly Hills: Sage
Publications, 1978), 212.
7. Thomas L. Greenbaum, The Handbook for Focus Group Research (New York:
Lexington Books, 1993), 30.
8. Shanahan and Beavers used the following worksheets and matrices in their
work in Bosnia: Pressure Point Identification Worksheet (PPIW). The PPIW
provides the IO planner with a systematic way to identify ways to influence
target
audiences. IO Planning Worksheet (PW). The IO planner uses the PW to
determine how and when to influence each pressure point. Synchronization
Matrix (SM). The SM is used to deconflict and synchronize IO activity. IO
Implementation
Worksheet (IW). The IW is used to record additional information about each
IO event found on the SM. In addition to identifying the attack "subsystem,"
the worksheet identifies the specific information themes that will be used
for each IO
audience. IO Implementation Matrix (IM). The IM chronologically lists all IO
executions for each IO function. Information from the IM is carried forward
to the optional IO implementation graphic (IG). IO IG. The IG graphically
portrays
scheduled IO activity during a specific time period.



Lieutenant Colonel Craig S.  Jones, US Army, Retired, is a senior
analyst with GCR International, based in northern Virginia.  He received
a B.S.  from Old Dominion University and an M.P.A.  from the University
of Oklahoma.  He is a graduate of US Army Command and General Staff
College and the Army War College.  While on active duty, he served as
chief, operations branch, Operations Division, Task Force Eagle; chief,
C2W Branch, Department of the Army; and training officer for the Drug
Enforcement Administration. 

------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Tiny Wireless Camera under $80!
Order Now! FREE VCR Commander!
Click Here - Only 1 Day Left!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/nuyOHD/7.PDAA/yigFAA/kgFolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->

------------------
http://all.net/ 

Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ 



This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : 2002-12-31 02:15:04 PST