Return-Path: <sentto-279987-5264-1030542286-fc=all.net@returns.groups.yahoo.com> Delivered-To: fc@all.net Received: from 204.181.12.215 [204.181.12.215] by localhost with POP3 (fetchmail-5.7.4) for fc@localhost (single-drop); Wed, 28 Aug 2002 06:47:08 -0700 (PDT) Received: (qmail 25025 invoked by uid 510); 28 Aug 2002 13:42:56 -0000 Received: from n39.grp.scd.yahoo.com (66.218.66.107) by all.net with SMTP; 28 Aug 2002 13:42:56 -0000 X-eGroups-Return: sentto-279987-5264-1030542286-fc=all.net@returns.groups.yahoo.com Received: from [66.218.67.198] by n39.grp.scd.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 28 Aug 2002 13:44:46 -0000 X-Sender: fc@red.all.net X-Apparently-To: iwar@onelist.com Received: (EGP: mail-8_1_0_1); 28 Aug 2002 13:44:46 -0000 Received: (qmail 80783 invoked from network); 28 Aug 2002 13:44:46 -0000 Received: from unknown (66.218.66.218) by m5.grp.scd.yahoo.com with QMQP; 28 Aug 2002 13:44:46 -0000 Received: from unknown (HELO red.all.net) (12.232.72.152) by mta3.grp.scd.yahoo.com with SMTP; 28 Aug 2002 13:44:45 -0000 Received: (from fc@localhost) by red.all.net (8.11.2/8.11.2) id g7SDjLS23972 for iwar@onelist.com; Wed, 28 Aug 2002 06:45:21 -0700 Message-Id: <200208281345.g7SDjLS23972@red.all.net> To: iwar@onelist.com (Information Warfare Mailing List) Organization: I'm not allowed to say X-Mailer: don't even ask X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net> X-Yahoo-Profile: fcallnet Mailing-List: list iwar@yahoogroups.com; contact iwar-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list iwar@yahoogroups.com Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:iwar-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com> Date: Wed, 28 Aug 2002 06:45:21 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [iwar] [fc:Chinese.strategists.suggest.U.S..would.not.defend.Taiwan.if.attacked.by.mainland] Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Geostrategy-Direct Week of September 3, 2002 NORTHEAST ASIA REPORT Chinese strategists suggest U.S. would not defend Taiwan if attacked by mainland [FC - Or perhaps if the US engages in one more large-scale deployed field action, they will not be ABLE to react rapidly to such an event? After all, the published doctrine and basis for US military airlift deployability is two near-simultaneous regional conflicts. Add Iraq to Afghanastan, and Taiwan is easy pickings?] Some Chinese strategic thinkers are putting out word that the United States may not defend Taiwan in the event of a conflict with the mainland. The Hong Kong newspaper Wen Wei Po quoting Beijing strategists said if China takes military action, the United States "is not at all certain to become involved, in light of its own national interests, and if there is involvement, it will not be too deep." President Bush sought to undo a decade of "strategic ambiguity" about a U.S. defense of Taiwan last year when he announced publicly that the United States would do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan if it attacked by the mainland. The previous position of the Clinton administration is that the United States would not defend Taiwan if it declared independence. "Taiwan is nothing more than a card," one Chinese official was quoted as saying, adding that the island is not a major consideration in the United States Asia-Pacific strategy. The article went on to say that Taiwan has been part of China and is a key base in the Pacific with "an excellent combination of conditions and has advantages both for offense and defense." The United States, by contrast, has other bases at Okinawa and Guam. Analysts say the comment have raised the notion that China's military might miscalculate and attempt to retake Taiwan by force, if it thinks the United States would not intervene. A Chinese military source told the newspaper that the current large-scale exercises near Taiwan are targeted at deterring "Taiwan independence." Another Hong Kong newspaper, Ming Po, reported last week that Chinese communist leaders meeting in the seaside resort of Beidaihe have toughened their position on the use of force following recent pro-independence statements by Taiwanese President Chen Shuibian. The newspaper quoted sources close to the Communist Party as saying Party leaders agreed that it was "essential to be prepared to attack Taiwan independence by military means and settle the Taiwan problem at any time." The Central Military Commission plans to hold a larger military exercise along the Fujian coast, to review military modernization efforts and national defense mobilization capabilities and that "a clear and specific warning to the Taiwan independence forces" will be issued soon. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~--> Receive Phone Calls and Faxes While You're Online! Emerson Switchboard eliminates the need for a second phone line. 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This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : 2002-10-01 06:44:32 PDT