Return-Path: <sentto-279987-5269-1030550829-fc=all.net@returns.groups.yahoo.com> Delivered-To: fc@all.net Received: from 204.181.12.215 [204.181.12.215] by localhost with POP3 (fetchmail-5.7.4) for fc@localhost (single-drop); Wed, 28 Aug 2002 09:11:13 -0700 (PDT) Received: (qmail 32322 invoked by uid 510); 28 Aug 2002 16:05:20 -0000 Received: from n19.grp.scd.yahoo.com (66.218.66.74) by all.net with SMTP; 28 Aug 2002 16:05:20 -0000 X-eGroups-Return: sentto-279987-5269-1030550829-fc=all.net@returns.groups.yahoo.com Received: from [66.218.67.196] by n19.grp.scd.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 28 Aug 2002 16:07:09 -0000 X-Sender: fastflyer28@yahoo.com X-Apparently-To: iwar@onelist.com Received: (EGP: mail-8_1_0_1); 28 Aug 2002 16:07:09 -0000 Received: (qmail 25700 invoked from network); 28 Aug 2002 16:07:08 -0000 Received: from unknown (66.218.66.216) by m3.grp.scd.yahoo.com with QMQP; 28 Aug 2002 16:07:08 -0000 Received: from unknown (HELO web14507.mail.yahoo.com) (216.136.224.70) by mta1.grp.scd.yahoo.com with SMTP; 28 Aug 2002 16:07:08 -0000 Message-ID: <20020828160708.59734.qmail@web14507.mail.yahoo.com> Received: from [68.100.117.19] by web14507.mail.yahoo.com via HTTP; Wed, 28 Aug 2002 09:07:08 PDT To: iwar@yahoogroups.com, Information Warfare Mailing List <iwar@yahoogroups.com> In-Reply-To: <200208281345.g7SDjLS23972@red.all.net> From: "e.r." <fastflyer28@yahoo.com> X-Yahoo-Profile: fastflyer28 Mailing-List: list iwar@yahoogroups.com; contact iwar-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list iwar@yahoogroups.com Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:iwar-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com> Date: Wed, 28 Aug 2002 09:07:08 -0700 (PDT) Subject: Re: [iwar] [fc:Chinese.strategists.suggest.U.S..would.not.defend.Taiwan.if.attacked.by.mainland] Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit On China- it might be of interest to note that a Congressionally mandated study which lasted 12 months and was released in the last few days turned many basic beliefs of US- China policy on its head. Reports in both the WashPost and NY Times pretty much told the same story. The Congressional study was completed by a comsission of 12 China experts, all government outsiders, 6 chosen by democrats and 6 by the GOP. It is as close as we have come to getting a real assessment by outsiders and to make this quick, it painted a foreboding picture of Chinese defense policy. There was also a CBO study released this week that came to several of the same conclusions. We have know for some time the PLA has a dedicated group of hacker in its ranks. It appears they also have strategic interests in the Pac-Rim beyond Taiwan and both studies concluded that China may look like a sleeping dog, but their program of military modernization is potentially leading to a new force posture. Whey may be able to become the "bad boys" of asia if they have such interests. What mitigates this all is we have heard them bluster before. They have openly spoken of purchasing either Spanish, or Russian AirCraft Cruisers. It may be a simple case of sabre rattling. If they are sharpening those sabres, we do have a problem. The China Desk at State can only yell "incoming", untill both studies are examined for both intellectual honesty and reality. After going through both stuies, they do not paint and friendly picture of the future. One thing to keep track of is China provides us a way to keep Russia from having dreams of becoming a great empire again. With President Putin in charge, he has shown a very forward leaning national security stance. The only thing that will keep Russia in check in money.way to be a way to the she Fred Cohen wrote:Geostrategy-Direct Week of September 3, 2002 NORTHEAST ASIA REPORT Chinese strategists suggest U.S. would not defend Taiwan if attacked by mainland [FC - Or perhaps if the US engages in one more large-scale deployed field action, they will not be ABLE to react rapidly to such an event? After all, the published doctrine and basis for US military airlift deployability is two near-simultaneous regional conflicts. Add Iraq to Afghanastan, and Taiwan is easy pickings?] Some Chinese strategic thinkers are putting out word that the United States may not defend Taiwan in the event of a conflict with the mainland. The Hong Kong newspaper Wen Wei Po quoting Beijing strategists said if China takes military action, the United States "is not at all certain to become involved, in light of its own national interests, and if there is involvement, it will not be too deep." President Bush sought to undo a decade of "strategic ambiguity" about a U.S. defense of Taiwan last year when he announced publicly that the United States would do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan if it attacked by the mainland. The previous position of the Clinton administration is that the United States would not defend Taiwan if it declared independence. "Taiwan is nothing more than a card," one Chinese official was quoted as saying, adding that the island is not a major consideration in the United States Asia-Pacific strategy. The article went on to say that Taiwan has been part of China and is a key base in the Pacific with "an excellent combination of conditions and has advantages both for offense and defense." The United States, by contrast, has other bases at Okinawa and Guam. Analysts say the comment have raised the notion that China's military might miscalculate and attempt to retake Taiwan by force, if it thinks the United States would not intervene. A Chinese military source told the newspaper that the current large-scale exercises near Taiwan are targeted at deterring "Taiwan independence." Another Hong Kong newspaper, Ming Po, reported last week that Chinese communist leaders meeting in the seaside resort of Beidaihe have toughened their position on the use of force following recent pro-independence statements by Taiwanese President Chen Shuibian. The newspaper quoted sources close to the Communist Party as saying Party leaders agreed that it was "essential to be prepared to attack Taiwan independence by military means and settle the Taiwan problem at any time." The Central Military Commission plans to hold a larger military exercise along the Fujian coast, to review military modernization efforts and national defense mobilization capabilities and that "a clear and specific warning to the Taiwan independence forces" will be issued soon. Yahoo! Groups SponsorADVERTISEMENT ------------------ http://all.net/ Your use of Yahoo! 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This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : 2002-10-01 06:44:32 PDT