Re: [iwar] Critical Mass to wage IW

From: Tony Bartoletti (azb@llnl.gov)
Date: 2001-07-09 16:11:03


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From: Tony Bartoletti <azb@llnl.gov>
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Date: Mon, 09 Jul 2001 16:11:03 -0700
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Subject: Re: [iwar] Critical Mass to wage IW
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At 05:08 AM 7/5/01 -0700, you wrote:
>Per the message sent by Dan Ellis:
>
> >       I have heard statements from many in the computer security and
> > information warfare that waging information warfare requires the
> > resources of a nation state.  Can anybody explain why a terrorist group,
> > a single security professional, or a small group of "hobbyists" couldn't
> > mount the resources necessary to wage information warfare?  Maybe I am
> > alone in believing that a small, trained, coordinated group could pull
> > off at least a significant offensive for a short period of time.
>
>I think it's pretty clear that 'a small, trained, coordinated group
>could pull off at least a significant offensive for a short period of
>time.', but that is not the same as waging a war.  A single individual
>can take a machine gun or a mortar and kill a lot of people pretty
>quickly, and we don't call that a war either.

It is difficult to apply the term "war" to situations where guts are not 
spilling out everywhere.

How strong the offensive, and how long the duration, does depend upon 
resources.  And a nation-state will generally have a lot more 
resources.  But ...

The real point is that the force-difference is greatly reduced.  In 
ordinary warfare, a nation with n-times more resources might be able to 
inflict n-times the damage over the long haul.  With cyber-warfare, perhaps 
only a log(n) factor is required.

Fifty ordinary "hackers" can produce some damage and a lot of noise.  But a 
dedicated fifty "master criminals" with deep pockets and a degree of 
patient preparation may be able to produce damage many magnitudes greater 
than the fifty script-kiddies, no matter how sophisticated those scripts 
might be.  As Fred points out below, the damage depends on knowing more 
than just "I can disrupt some systems", but rather, "this is the system 
that controls the dispatch of (trains, natural gas, etc.,) and by diverting 
the flow in just this way, I can cause n-times as many casualties".

A well-funded group can sustain a battle by employing "disposable" gear, 
stolen accounts, etc.

___tony___

> >       What resources are needed in order to wage a significant 
> offensive?  I
> > suggest the following resources: 1) training/competency, 2) time, 3)
> > computer software & hardware, 4) a connection to the internet.
>
>Sure.  How about an objective and intelligence with respect to that
>objective?


Tony Bartoletti 925-422-3881 <azb@llnl.gov>
Information Operations, Warfare and Assurance Center
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Livermore, CA 94551-9900





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